Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (Full Version)

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Oleg Mastruko -> Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/3/2011 11:19:40 PM)

Okay.... this is going to be AAR of my game vs Senno.

Before reading this you should quickly go through the last few pages of Q-Ball vs von Beanie AAR, starting from page 8, where, based on some comments, idea for this game was started.

Also, read selected posts from the "Winter idea..." thread in the main WITE forum.

Some people complained that some posts – presumably including my own – put them off from playing the game or even reading the forums. Well that was never my intention. I consider WITE to be wargame of the year, a must buy and must play. There are *currently* some problems with the way first 9 months of war are modelled (we'll get to that), but there is ton of content in the game, many scenarios (some dealing with other periods of war), playing vs the AI, and of course possibility to use house rules.

Finally, once for all: WITE is wargame of the year, buy it, play it, read about it on the forums too..... don't EVER say that one of my posts made you not buy the game because that's simply not true.

My own review of WITE, written for the local PC magazine (so you probably won't understand any of it) is here:
http://www.bug.hr/master/rec/gary-grigsbys-war-in-the-east/95370.aspx

Having said that, what I think is the biggest problem with modelling first 9 months is what I called in many many posts "two waves of supermen". First we have summer supermen Germans, that are too strong for too long for my taste (and compared to history). However, they require lots of skill to be used to their full potential, so whoever wins with them probably deserved to win, it's a fair victory IMO. It also means Soviet player didn't get much enjoyment out of being beaten and pushed around, but that's war.

If the Soviet player survives the onslaught of summer German supermen without surrendering (for moral, or pyschological reasons, because surrender in game is not imposed until Germans get whopping 290 VPs), so if the Soviet player survives, he gets winter Soviet supermen, which are even stronger than German supermen.

Every game so far was "destroyed" by Soviet supermen, no HvH (human vs human) game that I know of got to the spring of 42 in playable state (I prefer the term playable to "realistic" or "historic").

That's simply a temporary problem with the current modelling of winter of 41-42, and we are trying to find a way around it. Is it the improved strategy for Germans? Is the secret in taking more ground, killing more Russians? Keeping more of your own forces alive? House rules? Patch? While trying to find that out, look at this particular game as another try to get to that elusive goal: "playable spring 42".... hence the name of the AAR: Waiting for the spring miracle.

As my argument is that both sides are overpowered for a period of time, but Russian overpowerment is far worse from balancing standpoint, it only makes sense for me to play Reds, and try to put yet another game out of balance. By winning! LOL [:'(]



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 2:55:38 AM)

Fairly solid opening turn in the north and center. He crossed Daugava (that's big river in Latvia) in two places, surrounded Riga, got to the suburbs of Minsk...

He cleaned all the Sov units in these sectors pretty thoroughly, he also killed around 4.800 aircraft which indicates he did put some effort into it. Best air players can squeeze 5.000, but many just leave air on autopilot and get around 3.200. As Axis you have to micromanage everythign and really squeeze last atoms from your units so I believe it's worth going for total air optimization on turn one and kill at least 4.600 Soviet fliying machines, which Senno did.

Also that Western pocket north of Brest is very nicely drawn. Obviously very detailed kind of guy who does not want to leave any units behind. First turn is important as pychological profiling tool for your opponent.[;)]

[image]local://upfiles/1633/FC633B8121AF46B2A7EC80EEDAE21CD2.jpg[/image]



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 2:59:10 AM)

Not so good (for him [:D]) in the south. He failed to close the Lvov pocket. Doesn't have to mean much, we'll see if this costs him long term...

[image]local://upfiles/1633/BC0B38D8481E4DD19926F636E3F9E7A9.jpg[/image]



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 3:08:41 AM)

Here's a nice music accompaniment to Soviet turn 1 - a "mobilization song" and also one of the best military marches EVER.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdEFxnrzJ_I

It's not a communist song, it's from the Tsarist Russia 1912, and the title means Farewell to Slavjanka (generic Slav girl name), it's a song WW1 regiments went to frontlines to, bidding farewell to their girlfriends, sisters etc.

With Soviet lyrics (there are tsarist and white nationalist Russian versions too):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqFISER9fVE&feature=related



Sabre21 -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 3:28:32 AM)

Is this a server based game or pbem?

His move up north isn't all that great. While some of his panzers moved to their extreme limit, too many in the center are out of position to make a strong turn 2 push. Same with most of his infantry. He should have shifted his infantry eastwards around the pocket and place them in better postions for next turn. He basically gave up a turn of movement for his grunts.

In the south his move is pretty dismal. It's one thing not to complete a large Lvov pocket, but to trigger the Rumanian border and not do it gives you the worst possible situation down there. It's obvious he didn't shift any of 2nd Panzers down south but he still could have taken Rovno and Lvov and created several smaller pockets with only AGS. You shouldn't be too hardpressed to extricate all of those forces west of Lvov. Looks like you still have an intact rail line. Based on where his armor currently is, it looks like he will make the push to Rumania next turn.



Klydon -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 3:46:52 AM)

Got to agree with Sabre. Absolutely no pockets in the south at all and his panzers are somewhat vulnerable to being put out of supply for a turn. Should have at least cut the rail lines. Be interesting to see where his main thrust winds up going, but it isn't in the south and you could wind up having some fun with him down there. Lot of Russian army left down there.

Hope he has something up his sleeve. This is a prime example of why it is important for the Axis to get out of the gate well.



Michael T -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 4:22:09 AM)

Gee I wish all my German opponents were so nice as to allow the escape of Kiev MD and Co.



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 4:34:22 AM)

Yes I agree, nothing so sweet as to be able to escape the incomplete encirlement not only on foot, but on rail (comfortably, like gentlemen). We'll see how much of a threat he will be in the north and center, he is much more aggressive there and does not seem worried with the southern setbacks. Germans need to complete encirlcements, several missed like this and it's pretty much game over.

Sabre it's old school PBEM. I fell in love with server based thing at first but then I missed the opportunity to open old saves to plan turns while the game is with the opponent, analyze losses for past turns, make screenshots etc.



Mynok -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 6:28:25 PM)

He could have closed Lvov by pushing with 17th army. They could have easily gotten down there and connected with the panzers. More and more I'm becoming a fan of first turn blasting everything you can. Some units will escape the first turn but that's just more to encircle in later turns. It is foolhardy to restrict the first turn bonus to just making encirclements. Blast away.




TulliusDetritus -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 7:07:35 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

Yes I agree, nothing so sweet as to be able to escape the incomplete encirlement not only on foot, but on rail (comfortably, like gentlemen).


This is exactly what happened on my PBEM. I managed to evacuate everyone "like gentlemen" from the Lvov salient (an almost pocket). But, are you sure there will be enough points to evacuate them? Didn't they change the rail points thing on the last patches (at least for the first turns or months)?





Klydon -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 7:09:32 PM)

They did change the rail cap a bit in the early turns, but the big change is no factory evacuation the first turn, so what rail cap the Russians do have is available for troop movement.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 7:14:52 PM)

I see, thank you, Klydon. Then I guess all these guys should be escaping like gentlemen. Maybe some guys in the Pripyat Marshes too. The rail capacity is still around 70k?



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 7:34:35 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus
But, are you sure there will be enough points to evacuate them? Didn't they change the rail points thing on the last patches (at least for the first turns or months)?


Sovs have quite a lot of rail capacity even after the changes.

There are some tricks Axis can do to disrupt the planned rail use by Sovs, though.... like bombing the factories to force their early evac => meaning lots of production lost in the most important period of Barbarossa. Or simply jumping several factory-rich cities in a single turn.



Sabre21 -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 9:12:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

Yes I agree, nothing so sweet as to be able to escape the incomplete encirlement not only on foot, but on rail (comfortably, like gentlemen). We'll see how much of a threat he will be in the north and center, he is much more aggressive there and does not seem worried with the southern setbacks. Germans need to complete encirlcements, several missed like this and it's pretty much game over.

Sabre it's old school PBEM. I fell in love with server based thing at first but then I missed the opportunity to open old saves to plan turns while the game is with the opponent, analyze losses for past turns, make screenshots etc.


You can still do screenshots, but I agree about the ability to review past turns. It would be nice if there was a save folder for these.



Michael T -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/4/2011 10:10:16 PM)

For me Server PBEM is the only way. But yeah I would like to be able to review the situation before the next turn. I did start a thread about it and it had some support.



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 2:00:23 AM)

Okay, fast forward to turn 4 and Axis made progress but could be better IMO. First two turns were OK-ish from the Axis POV, he was one hex from Pskov on turn 2, but turns 3 and 4 he did that classic mistake in some places: trying to fight with Panzers instead of fighting with infantry and using Panzers to exploit and encircle, and fight an occasional battle vs damaged second line units.

In the last turn infantry caught up and he did disengage his AGN Panzers so he might be making plans for some proper buildup and exploitation next turn. We'll see where he goes.

IMO, German army groups have different jobs in front of them. AGN and AGM must grab territory first, encircle something along the way, but if they have dilemma whether to advance or encircle, they should sometimes pick advance. (AGN should practically always pick advance! AGN's Big Encirclement is Leningrad itself.)

On the other hand AGS has one main task – to encircle. Historically, and in the game, by far the most of big encirclements happened in AGS sector, no need to explain why, it's the ideal tank country.

AGS must spend every turn planning and preparing encirclements for the next turn(s). No turn without some encirclement, big or small, should be the AGS mantra. He failed to do proper Lvov pocket on turn one and it comes to bite him in the ass. I transferred two very solid Mech Corps from Kiev MD area to Smolensk landbridge and somewhere around Pskov, and I suppose those 5 CV tank units hidden in the woods will make even the strongest Panzer divs pause.

AGS mantra: ENCIRCLE ENCIRCLE ENCIRCLE. Territory will come.

AGN mantra: run to Leningrad with everything + stuff loaned from others. Run run run. Every hex counts

AGM mantra – advance towards Moscow, but don't miss on some juicy encirclements along the way.

AGN and AGM followed their mantras for the first two turns then kinda bogged down waiting for INF to catch up. AGS wasn't following it's mantra really (so far). He encircled 2-3 units in the last turn.

He has to make his play stronger or.... well, I can always fight in the Brelin by late 42 and in 43 it's BAOR time (British Army of the Rhine LOL). 44 commie flag in Paris I guess. [:D]

Last time when I pointed out what I perceive as mistakes in Axis strategy, some people accused me of being a buffoon or smartass, but what can I say? Having seen what some good players can do I can't pretend that I am frightened by this kind of advance, SO FAR. That can change though, and if it happens you'll read about it here first.

Am I being a smatrass again? I hope not, I'm just trying to provide some color commentary (and keep in mind english is not my first language). [&o]

Pictures in the next post.



Zort -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 2:07:10 AM)

Question about AGN, each time I have driven up there the soviet player has been able to put enough units in front of me such that I either have to attack them or sit there waiting for my inf.  What is your recommendation?



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 2:13:24 AM)

I have some problems uploading pictures, so I'll try later.

Zort, try not to sit waiting for infantry, take risks and push your mech units further, always further, resupplying from air. He spent 1-2 turns waiting for infantry and doing some futile attacks with panzers so by turn 4 after he disengaged, his AGN panzers are actually couple hexes BACK than they were on turn 2. Plus never go even near the cities with panzers, even if you didn't see anything with recon assume city is occupied, and Panzers have nothing to do there anyway, just grab territory like crazy in the north.

This is turning into "Axis hints and tips from a Soviet fanboy" thread, but that's OK [;)]



Sabre21 -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 3:15:15 AM)

I tend to agree with you in most cases Oleg. The Germans need to push hard and fast for both Leningrad and Moscow, but even down south you need to get across the Dnepr before any real solid defense can be put up while on the way, in all sectors, envelop and destroy when you can but never lose sight of the primary objectives.

Killing as many Soviets and taking as many manpower centers prior to the mud season can cripple the Soviets preventing them from doing any significant damage to you in the blizzard. That has always been my first task when it comes to blizzard survival.

Soviets need to counter all this by delaying the Germans as much as possible. That's where an effective checkerboard and successive lines of defense come into play. Using tar baby tactics and infiltration when ever possible to slow down and/or cut off the lead panzer units is essential. Any German player that sticks his panzer neck out too far without infantry is looking to get it cut off.



Encircled -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 9:44:54 AM)

Its getting the balance correct between Panzers pushing as far forward as possible, and not getting cut off every turn.

I'm assuming (never having played a human yet) that a good Soviet player takes every chance he gets to cut off armoured spearheads, and its very hard to stop while maintaining your advance



timmyab -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 11:40:00 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled
I'm assuming (never having played a human yet) that a good Soviet player takes every chance he gets to cut off armoured spearheads

You bet they do.Even a couple of sec units can do the job, and a lot of the time these are doomed units that the Soviet player has given up on anyway so he's got nothing much to lose.Sometimes I deliberately hold off on turn one because of the German supply situation which can lead to overconfidence and disaster on turn two.
Of course allowing your spearheads to be cut off is bad enough but it also means that a lot of Soviet units that should be isolated and dead meat next turn, are alive and kicking to hold you up for another turn, and threatening to do the same thing next turn.
In my pbem games to date I've found that a failure to guard flanks is the single biggest mistake that people make.It only takes a single regiment every forth hex to prevent the vast majority of Soviet infiltration maneuvers.



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 2:23:04 PM)

Turn 4 north

[image]local://upfiles/1633/D9FE6B57E33246E485293F6D532B0B3A.jpg[/image]



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 2:26:46 PM)

OK finally posting pictures work, in the pic above notice that he took the panzers back a bit, as the river line is finally taken over by his infantry. There is small penetration NW of Velikye Luki but not as dangerous at it should have been (from his POV).

Turn 4 center

[image]local://upfiles/1633/8B3934DDAA2C47A28FC28AD6FC63A017.jpg[/image]



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 2:32:54 PM)

In the above picture (center) entrained units are some mech corps transported from the south, I dont want him in front of Moscow too fast.

Turn 4 south.


[image]local://upfiles/1633/AA545E86EC154DD4A2DFCC188E677C30.jpg[/image]



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 2:45:49 PM)

Oleg, could you do me (or us) a favour, please? Could you toggle the forts on? Now it's irrelevant, too early so the forts are not built, but later these forts will make a big difference. I mean, we can't see the whole picture if we can't see the fortified places [:)]

I also notice in many AARs people don't toggle the enemy hexes on. We really can't see what's going on: thin corridors that might be cut off, etc. It's confusing [&:]



cookie monster -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 2:51:52 PM)

Ill say this cos your at the start, get those Mountain troops out of your front line,

when destroyed they dont come back

Give them a place in the 2nd/3rd line or make them the Crimea/Odessa garrision



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 3:13:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: cookie monster

Ill say this cos your at the start, get those Mountain troops out of your front line,

when destroyed they dont come back

Give them a place in the 2nd/3rd line or make them the Crimea/Odessa garrision


Soviet mountain?

Why do you think they are particulary worth protecting for Soviets cookie? They don't get any special winter benefits or anything? Am I missing something? I know they are worth in gold for the Axis, but for Sovs...?



cookie monster -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/5/2011 5:08:32 PM)

Maybe they are just another one of the horde...

But when they SHATTER from front line action, they are not automatically returned as a reinforcement (rule exists till Nov 41)

Rife divs are, Tank Divs come back as brigades, Motorised Divs come back as Rifle Divs

There are a number of garrison duties such as Odessa/Crimea they are better suited for.

Trouble is they cant combine into Corps

Best time for them is entering Hungary in the late game cos of the mountain ranges

IF.... a game ever gets that far



Sabre21 -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/6/2011 12:04:26 AM)

The German player is being way too cautious.



Klydon -> RE: Waiting for the spring miracle... Oleg (Sov) vs Senno (Axis), NO Senno (3/6/2011 3:47:14 AM)

The German is pretty inexperienced and it is showing. Oleg has plenty of experience as the Russians so I think this will likely get ugly.

I agree on the mountain, although the only thing I try to do with them is make sure they are in the back when choosing between them and infantry. Can't replace them, but they can come in handy later.



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