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fcharton -> RE: Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J) (10/6/2013 11:45:12 AM)
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I have suggested to my opponent that we upgrade our game. I am a bit suspicious about the value of this, as an upgrade will include both bug fixes and changes that might have adverse effects, and in such a long game, playtesting changes is almost impossible, and will follow his advice.
January 15th 1943
Supply woes
It seems that China is drawing a little more supplies than before. Over the last few days, the total amount of supplies stocked in China went from 250 to 290k tons. Meanwhile Korea went from 1150 to 1180k tons, and Manchukuo from 1700 to 1650k. Kunming doesn’t seem to draw supplies, but Canton does, and has 77k tons now, which mostly came from Nanking.
Looking at the way supplies move into China, I noticed a number of things.
First, there seems to be a real problem drawing supplies from Korea and Manchukuo into northern China. Fuel, oil and resources do move the other way around, which suggests the road is not blocked, but supplies doesn’t. I suspect Port Arthur and Fusan have now become too large to let their supplies go. I am planning to try and draw from Tientsin, see if I can create a stock in northern China, which can then be used to draw down to Nanking, and the Canton.
Second, there seem to be a strange area between Nanking and Hangchow. Basically, 100 000 tons of supplies (or about 40% of what is stocked in China) commutes between those two cities twice a week. I suspect a Robin Hood syndrome, here: both bases have about the same claim to supplies, but one is rich and the other one is poor, so our good AE engine robs the rich to feed the poor… until the poor gets rich, and our good old sir Robin robs the new rich, to feel the new poor… Ironically, this probably costs me supplies, and might even block some or all of the supply flow in China.
Third, coastal bases seem to have a large effect on the way supplies move. I need to test this more, but I suspect demand is affected by port and airfield size, which means an inland base with no port is always at a disadvantage. This, again, is a problem in China, where the correct route to draw supplies goes through Changsha (I will try to stockpile there)
I am still experimenting, and believe I will end up getting the supplies to move south. The next amusing experiment will be to try and get the fuel to move north from Singapore.
Who needs supplies?
In Kalemyo, we attacked another day. As expected, we were unsupplied, and our AV got badly reduced, but the enemy got the worst of it. Here are the results for yesterday
Ground combat at Kalemyo (59,42)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 93779 troops, 837 guns, 222 vehicles, Assault Value = 3069
Defending force 18955 troops, 300 guns, 625 vehicles, Assault Value = 485
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1
Japanese adjusted assault: 1660
Allied adjusted defense: 859
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 1)
Japanese ground losses:
1850 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 252 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Guns lost 20 (1 destroyed, 19 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
1009 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 104 disabled
Non Combat: 15 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 19 disabled
Guns lost 23 (1 destroyed, 22 disabled)
Vehicles lost 37 (14 destroyed, 23 disabled)
And today
Ground combat at Kalemyo (59,42)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 92014 troops, 836 guns, 222 vehicles, Assault Value = 2889
Defending force 18447 troops, 303 guns, 623 vehicles, Assault Value = 402
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0
Japanese adjusted assault: 445
Allied adjusted defense: 796
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: supply(-)
Japanese ground losses:
1743 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 132 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 22 disabled
Guns lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
882 casualties reported
Squads: 74 destroyed, 42 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 23 (10 destroyed, 13 disabled)
Vehicles lost 41 (5 destroyed, 36 disabled)
That’s over 150 squads and devices destroyed over two days, for 15 ours.
In Dobo, our air bridge seems to be achieving results. The SNLF unit that used to defend the base, is now at full strength, and the mixed brigade retreated from Taberfane is slowly recovering. My opponent apparently only has two Australian brigades there, which means few engineers. With a little luck, we can fight back in a few weeks.
The rest of the war is nice and slow going. We are getting more reported hits from the air ASW units based in the Indies. I am now getting quite a few pilots with ASW ratings around 70, and this seems to be making a difference. In Burma, I am marching on Chittagong. I want to see what those 30 units are like. Enemy fighters have disappeared, my opponent mostly bombs at night, and goes unescorted. Why risk planes when the engine let you do it.
In New Guinea, Lae gets bombed daily. I am not sure it makes a lot of sense, but it is not very damaging either, so… If he gets careless and sends the bombers unescorted, I will try an ambush.
Longer term thinking
I am trying to get an idea of where my war is going (provided the supply flow problem gets solved, or the answer becomes very clear). I believe the advance into India will not happen, even though I intend to try, the supply situation makes it almost impossible, and gives the Allies a long time to reorganize and reinforce. But this doesn’t mean Burma is a bad theater. I believe this can be turned into a very bloody operation for the Allies, as the losses around Kalemyo prove.
There is still no sign of activity in the central pacific. I suspect my opponent will not try this route: so far, many of his landings have been quite bloody. If I can bit him in Dobo, it will only confirm this idea.
The Solomons are being evacuated. Guadalcanal will soon be left with a token force, but again, I don’t think my opponent is investing much there. To me, the main path of advance is the typical two pronged move along both coasts of New Guinea, from Taberfane to Ambon, and from Milne Bay to Lae and Wewak. However, the northern move seems to be more difficult than the southern one. As a result, I believe I should work on building defenses in the Macassar-Kendari-Manado area, and then build up bases in the rear.
The more I think of it, the more Cruft’s Hive idea sounds interesting. I think I should build my defenses from Japan outwards, and let the final perimeter fall where his advance and my defense meet.
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