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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (12/22/2016 10:44:16 PM)
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Most of my posts deal with operational and tactical events with hints at strategic planning. This post will delve more deeply into endgame strategy, as we’re on the cusp of another major Allied offensive.
The Allies have grown powerful and can (seemingly) go where they want to. To a newbie it may seem that the war is winding down and that there’s little that John can do about it now. But AE Veterans know that's not the case. The Empire remains powerful, though the nature of the war has shifted. The player who better grasps this metamorphosis will have an advantage going forward.
There are three primary objectives in the game: (1) attrition the Japanese navy, (2) take the airfields necessary to wage strategic war against the Home Islands, and (3) restrict and eventually deny Japan access to oil and resources in the DEI. Those aren’t listed in order of priority, though I think (1) is the most important because it facilitates (2) and (3). As for (3), it the hardest to objectively measure during the course of the war; there’s a lot of guesswork in estimating how much oil Japan has stored away – or how short she is.
(1) Attritioning the Japanese Navy: The Allies have made notable progress towards the first objective. I’ve had most of my navy and hundreds of my best transports in the DEI, surrounded by enemy bases and sea lanes, for four months. This is the perfect terrain for knife fights at close range. Enemy cruisers and destroyers should be nipping at my TFs, picking off cripples, slowing everything down, and occasionally striking hard. Instead, John hasn’t committed a combat ship to the DEI in three months. In a place that should have been a meat grinder for one-third of a year, I’ve lost one CLAA, nine DDs, one APA and two AKA. (Imagine how many reinforcements have arrived on map during those four months!) John's lost so many ships that he decided he couldn't afford to commit any more to a contest that involved his heartland.
Even though John essentially withdrew his navy in December, he’s still suffered pretty heavy losses (many occurring before his withdrawal and therefore partly responsible for it). I know he’s lost a CVL, two BBs, and roughly a dozen DDs. One CV was badly damaged and another modestly, three other BBs had to go to shipyards, and several CLs were hit pretty hard.
He's been conserving his navy for three months. It's had time to recover and receive replacements. It’s strong again and a force to reckon with. I think he’ll commit it en masse against Death Star during the upcoming operation. But unless things are incredibly one-sided in his favor, any losses he suffers will be felt. And if the battles are standoffs or favor the Allies, Japan’s decline should accelerate.
(2 and 3) Taking Airfields for Strategic Bombing and Denying Access to the DEI: I’m on track to begin taking bases for strategic bombing purposes and to close his oil producing bases or limit his access to them. Hokkaido, Korea, China, Okinawa, Formosa, the Philippines, and the Marianas are the prime possibilities for strategic bombing. Java and Borneo would be best for oil interdiction.
I’ve already identified the objectives as far into the future as the autumn months. He probably has hunches of his own, but the SigInt I'm seeing indicate that he remains unsure. He's dispersing his units, which is what I wanted to see.
It took him a long time to adjust to the fact that the war had changed. I think he spent to much time planning for an ambush of Death Star in the Coral Sea and moving troops forward to places like Gove. For the past month, he’s shown signs that he’s shifted his thinking. I see evidence that he’s attending to bases in the areas that he should be defending now. But there are too many bases and not enough time for him to cover everything. If properly planned and executed, Fun House should succeed in taking the prime real estate needed to further objectives (2) and/or (3).
Barring a mistake on my part, John probably can’t hope to retake the initiative or completely stop the Allies from advancing. Does he understand that each operation - even if successful - takes a lot of time for preparation, logistics, and implementation? Can he make a three-month operation drag out for four or five months? If so, those are victories for him.
His best hope isn’t to stop Fun House or future major operations, but he should be configuring his defenses to slow things down, striking at the edges, making it as costly as possible (to that end, raids further out against my LOCs might be effective; and that's why I'm carefully watching him sniff my SoPac LOC).
We’ve already seen in the game that his fighters pack some punch against my 4EB. AE Reluctant Admiral isn’t Tokyo Fire Bombing Circa 1945. If John slows me down, he has a chance to make strategic bombing missions so costly that it becomes relatively inefficient.
I think I’ve done pretty well in the game to date; I think Sumatra paid off handsomely and was worth it; I think the 1943 campaigns were successful beyond my wildest dreams; and I’m looking forward to what comes next. In the end, I think which of us best understands how the game is changing will win.
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