RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/31/2017 6:59:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DRF99

John pounded CR in Sumatra with constant bombardments. Now it's payback time.

Sumatra... Slowly I turned... Inch by inch... [:D]



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/31/2017 7:02:33 PM)

Pretty map pictures. Thanks.[:)]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 2:49:34 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Japan has to keep a garrison, if it falls below the garrison requirement then a roll is made -- so it isn't automatic. It has nothing to do with the amount of your troops present.

I have no clue what your two other options are, but I suspect activating the Soviets early would be the toughest as you need to destroy/disable enough AV to cause Japan to drop below the garrison requirement, and then get the die roll. That is what makes the strategy attractive.[:)]

However, with an active China....



Yeah, from forum discussions and experiments about five months ago the consensus was that "Garrison Requirement" means "Assigned to Kwantung Army". They do not have to be in Manchuria (other than by artificial House Rule on border crossing). So the only way to get the "Garrison Level" down is by destroying AV in the Kwantung Army. I did this in a game against the AI and at the point the Soviets activated I checked the Japanese Intel screen which said the Kwantung army was just a few points above 6000. Activation is not automatic below 8000, it's a die roll/probability equation.

John probably has removed all of the excess garrison, AA, A/T and artillery from Kwantung Army already, making the rest softer than usual.



Barb -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 6:53:06 AM)

Actually the AV calculation is being done over units present in exact hex-borders, not on units being assigned to any HQ. So to get the Soviet Activation roll triggered, you need to lower the total AV of all units present within area (Manchukuo and Korea basically) below the threshold.

So far the japan can counteract by rushing formations from China to keep the AV from going down. Maybe it can even be the best option - to abandon China (except few strongpoints maybe) and concentrate the army on the small territory of Manchukuo and Korea.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 7:00:10 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

Actually the AV calculation is being done over units present in exact hex-borders, not on units being assigned to any HQ. So to get the Soviet Activation roll triggered, you need to lower the total AV of all units present within area (Manchukuo and Korea basically) below the threshold.

So far the japan can counteract by rushing formations from China to keep the AV from going down. Maybe it can even be the best option - to abandon China (except few strongpoints maybe) and concentrate the army on the small territory of Manchukuo and Korea.

I thought it worked that way too, but in the forum discussion someone tried moving Kwantung Army units out of their area into China, and the numbers for the Garrison shown on the Intel Report did not change after the turn was run. Either way, it's a tough thing for an Allied player to "cause" Soviet Activation. The Japanese player basically has to take a risk that he can use Kwantung units and hope activation is not triggered.



HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 12:28:26 PM)

I think in solitaire games the AI is given a huge break on Soviet activation.

In several games I have cleared the AI out of northern China so effectively that in response the AI empties Manchukou trying to reconquer it.

I then surround huge stacks of Manchuria divisions with over 500AV each and after eliminating them roll into an empty Manchuria with the Chinese all the while the Soviets never activate.

I have the same scenario developing in my current game.




Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 1:16:26 PM)

I ran a test turn...and changed the HQ of a 110AV unit in Canton to Manchuko....ran the turn and the garrison went up by 80 points...but that was units in Manchuko recovering disablements. All ground units had replacements and reinforcements off...but there is a fair bit of disablements there.

So, it is the territory map that is important not HQ assignment.Press 2 and check codes...even an Island or two is counted for the garrison. I then ran a few turns to fast transport AV into the island and sure enough it is counted in the Garrison.

This makes sense I think from a coding pov.



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 1:20:40 PM)

Given the unlikely parameters of early Soviet Activation, it makes sense for CR to reduce Formosa & work on brining in gobs of supply to support the bombing campaign.

While the KB is still out there, John appears to want to keep it out of position while CR solidifies his beachhead. If he really thinks that he can use his Japanese land forces alone to contain CR in China, he's got quite the surprise in store.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 1:27:39 PM)

I have lots of big units inbound that are prepping for the next objectives. I'm not limited to those, since it is possible I'll find weakly defended or vacant bases when I start searching hard (after Formosa falls).

Paullus is right - the big effort now is to reduce Formosa and get the strategic bombing campaign up and running. The latter is dependent mostly on supply. Those two objectives might take a couple of months - unless John brings in KB and contests Formosa more strongly than he currently is.

John asked for a turn yesterday, as he was off work. I sent it before noon his time. Then I got an agitated email from him late in the afternoon to the effect that my email had just arrived and that I would "see the turn tonight." He was on the forum several times during the night, but never sent the turn nor any word why he wasn't going to do so. This isn't unprecedented for him. He is hit-and-miss when it comes to communicating. But the level of agitation expressed in his late afternoon email was unusual.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 2:07:47 PM)

Times are tough for Japan...I well remember the long, long turns needed to get things moving after a deep invasion.

Plus thought to pick lines of defense...all the plane rebuilding, etc.

That is me. But, I don't think John thinks like me.[;)]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 2:17:30 PM)

The delay here is occasioned by three possibilities, in order of likelihood:

1. John sent the turn but it hung up in his Outbox overnight.
2. Superforts clobbered his garrison at Amoy, eliciting weeping and gnashing of teeth and mutterings over the profligate use of B-29s in a ground-support role.
3. A KB mission versus Boela or Sorong didn't go particularly well.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 2:29:10 PM)

John just sent the turn with this sparse message: "Here you go."

No explanation for yesterday and last night. That's odd.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 2:55:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John just sent the turn with this sparse message: "Here you go."

No explanation for yesterday and last night. That's odd.




Haha![:D] That is about all I ever say to Jocke! Obvert and I normally don't say anything and use dropbox. With Tiemanj we almost never said anything.



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 3:22:07 PM)

Lowe is the original "International Man of Mystery." [:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 5:10:30 PM)

8/8/44

Peep Show & SEAC: Superforts hit enemy stack at Amoy, softening it up for tomorrow's attack (I'm pretty sure this is what led to John's unusual communications yesterday, but I might be wrong).


[image]local://upfiles/8143/BBC0B40A08BB43C7B2BE6D59D109D4CD.jpg[/image]



BillBrown -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 5:20:50 PM)

You do have really pretty pictures in your AAR.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 5:21:17 PM)

8/8/44

KB & the DEI: John pulls back KB a bit and detaches a third of it to escort merchantmen towards Mindanao, probably a supply mission.

Accordingly, the threat level to Boela is down for awhile.

If Lexington is still alive when Death Star makes its next visit, she'll head back to Manila under heavy escort.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/6D2699DEBABA431CBF7502C2FCFF422B.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 5:25:34 PM)

8/8/44

U.S.S. Washington: A good ship returns to the sea after a year in hiding and making repairs.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/D4DBE8197A8648C695F893425C44EA0D.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 5:26:18 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

You do have really pretty pictures in your AAR.


Well, some of you guys have pretty pictures in your Avatars.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 5:45:17 PM)

About that division 3 miles from Amoy: put it in Reserve (Pursuit) mode so when it enters the hex it will not take part in the main battle but if the Japanese flee it can beat up on them on the way out.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 5:50:48 PM)

8/8/44

Sequencing and Timing of Operations: I have a complicated decision to make about what to do next. There are lots of variables. Each option has positives and negatives, so there's no obvious "winner." In order of priority:

1. Escort supply and reinforcement ships from DEI to Manila.
2. Maintain pressure on Formosa's airfields.
3. Maintain hold on Chinese beachheads and make sure my troops don't get overwhelmed while Death Star is away.
4. Formosa invasion.
5. Escort several hundred empty merchantmen part of the way home to West Coast or Oz.

I've just about decided not to take the risk of running out of supply on Luzon or with a shoestring Formosa invasion. Rather, I'll devote that last 60k supply to Luzon, thus keeping bombers flying.

I'd like to go ahead and send Death Star to the DEI immediately....but two large troop convoys are lagging behind and won't reach that area for at least two weeks. Those troops aren't needed for Formosa - they're for later operations - yet it would be efficient to bring them in with the other merchantmen rather than having to detach Death Star for them later, in yet another escort mission. Supply now is probably a higher priority than additional troops a bit later. I'm still waffling on that.

The supply/reinforcement TFs should reach Manila in about three weeks. Immediately thereafter, the invasion of Formosa commences. Once that is complete, Death Star will escort a host of empty ships halfway to a safe harbor, at the same time picking up more inbound supply and troop TFs.

All of this should take about eight to ten weeks. At the end of that interval, if things are going well, I'll be in position to trigger the next operation: Somersault.





Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 6:05:36 PM)

Speaking as a JFB, with experience with the end game, there are definite options there that are only positive for Japan.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 6:11:56 PM)

Yer bein' to obtuse fer li'l ol' me to know what yer talkin' about.

As far as I'm concerned, every one of those five items is essential. For instance, when the next group of ships arrives at Manila, I'll have about 75% of my total lift capacity in the Philippines. IE, it's too the point where I can't bring new supply and reinforcement in efficiently. I have to send some ships back, and relatively soon.

As for number three, that's a matter of local defense - mainly five or ten destroyers and decent CAP to protect Foochow while Death Star is off in the DEI for ten days.

And alot depends on what John does with KB. If he takes the opportunity to push it north, my life gets complicated. If he keeps it in the DEI, he's just asking for trouble and my life remains (mostly) uncomplicated.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 6:16:51 PM)

I doubt John has done the diligent work required to have troops waiting in the wings to descend on coastal China as soon as DS departs. It will take him several days to realize DS is going further south than Manila, and then he will think in terms of whether you are trying to trap KB in the DEI. The Errant Knight will dance around the playing board without tending to the dangers approaching his king.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 6:18:58 PM)

Yes, I agree that's most likely what he'll do with KB.

I'm not concerned about him invading coastal China. I would be worried if he had a large army marching overland and had the ability to bombard coastal China with BBs. That would not be pretty.



Lecivius -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 6:23:52 PM)

This game is called Logistics In The Pacific [;)]



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 6:28:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yer bein' to obtuse fer li'l ol' me to know what yer talkin' about.



I will explain when the game moves along some, if you are still interested and one of us remembers about it.[:)]



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 6:30:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I doubt John has done the diligent work required to have troops waiting in the wings to descend on coastal China as soon as DS departs. It will take him several days to realize DS is going further south than Manila, and then he will think in terms of whether you are trying to trap KB in the DEI. The Errant Knight will dance around the playing board without tending to the dangers approaching his king.


That he built forts at Amoy to 5, but left the other adjacent bases basically defenseless should tell you something.



Crackaces -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 7:25:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Japan has to keep a garrison, if it falls below the garrison requirement then a roll is made -- so it isn't automatic. It has nothing to do with the amount of your troops present.

I have no clue what your two other options are, but I suspect activating the Soviets early would be the toughest as you need to destroy/disable enough AV to cause Japan to drop below the garrison requirement, and then get the die roll. That is what makes the strategy attractive.[:)]

However, with an active China....



Yeah, from forum discussions and experiments about five months ago the consensus was that "Garrison Requirement" means "Assigned to Kwantung Army". They do not have to be in Manchuria (other than by artificial House Rule on border crossing). So the only way to get the "Garrison Level" down is by destroying AV in the Kwantung Army. I did this in a game against the AI and at the point the Soviets activated I checked the Japanese Intel screen which said the Kwantung army was just a few points above 6000. Activation is not automatic below 8000, it's a die roll/probability equation.

John probably has removed all of the excess garrison, AA, A/T and artillery from Kwantung Army already, making the rest softer than usual.


I think turn 800? or maybe 900? is the trigger for Soviet Intervention that is I believe the 8000 threshold is not even checked before then ..
thus has anyone tested or experienced an activation before these thresholds? I can say my third game activated on a magic number after engaging IJ in China ..



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/1/2017 7:28:18 PM)

Thinking aloud proved helpful, so thanks for bearing with me as I put my thoughts in writing.

I've decided to prioritize supply over the more distant reinforcements.

Accordingly, Death Star will return immediately to Manila and then proceed to the DEI. And the supply/reinforcement TFs in Oz will proceed immediately to the DEI.

This link-up could occur in as little as a week, shaving off the additional two to three weeks that would be necessary if I await arrival of the three lagging reinforcement TFs that are plodding across SoPac.

That means Death Star and the Herd could be back at Manila in two weeks, ready to proceed with the Formosa invasion.



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