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This game is called Logistics In The Pacific

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In hindsight, do you wish you would have had a CV clash around Camh Ran Bay a little while back?

My guess is no, you would gladly trade a few sunk Japanese carriers and instead have an early pristine invasion of China. Am I right?

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Yes, logistics is the name of the game.

To this point, I've done pretty well, I think. I'm 14 months into the deep Allied offensives, Death Star hasn't been at Pearl or any other major port behind the lines since October '43,

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The merchantmen that will rendezvous with Death Star in the DEI will be carrying at least 467k supplies...

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ORIGINAL: Crackaces

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Japan has to keep a garrison, if it falls below the garrison requirement then a roll is made -- so it isn't automatic. It has nothing to do with the amount of your troops present.

I have no clue what your two other options are, but I suspect activating the Soviets early would be the toughest as you need to destroy/disable enough AV to cause Japan to drop below the garrison requirement, and then get the die roll. That is what makes the strategy attractive.[:)]

However, with an active China....

Yeah, from forum discussions and experiments about five months ago the consensus was that "Garrison Requirement" means "Assigned to Kwantung Army". They do not have to be in Manchuria (other than by artificial House Rule on border crossing). So the only way to get the "Garrison Level" down is by destroying AV in the Kwantung Army. I did this in a game against the AI and at the point the Soviets activated I checked the Japanese Intel screen which said the Kwantung army was just a few points above 6000. Activation is not automatic below 8000, it's a die roll/probability equation.

John probably has removed all of the excess garrison, AA, A/T and artillery from Kwantung Army already, making the rest softer than usual.

I think turn 800? or maybe 900? is the trigger for Soviet Intervention that is I believe the 8000 threshold is not even checked before then ..
thus has anyone tested or experienced an activation before these thresholds? I can say my third game activated on a magic number after engaging IJ in China ..

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John is right about the low cost of Peep Show, to this point. Here's the balance sheet:

Credits: Foochow and Tsinkiang taken, Amoy about to be; Foochow airfield built from level 3 to 7; Foochow within Normal B-29 range of Tokyo and all points south; two mixed brigades and a rebuilding enemy division (6th) beat up; enemy pulling divisions out of Indochina and weakening Chinese MLR in response to threat; all Formosa airfields damaged or closed; many hundreds of enemy aircraft destroyed in the air or on the ground; a smattering of enemy riff-raff ships sunk; Japanese Empire nearly cut in two now; pressure increasing on John.

Debits: Two excellent transports [an APA and and LSI(L)] sunk; several hundred Allied fighters and bombers lost during the air war over Formosa (the Allies had a small advantage in numbers until naval bombardments of Formosa commenced, which tipped things decisively in favor of the Allies.

By my reckoning, Peep Show has been a tremendous success to this point. But this has been Peep Show, Part I. Part II will be the invasion of Formosa.

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John is right about the low cost of Peep Show, to this point. Here's the balance sheet:

Credits: Foochow and Tsinkiang taken, Amoy about to be; Foochow airfield built from level 3 to 7; Foochow within Normal B-29 range of Tokyo and all points south; two mixed brigades and a rebuilding enemy division (6th) beat up; enemy pulling divisions out of Indochina and weakening Chinese MLR in response to threat; all Formosa airfields damaged or closed; many hundreds of enemy aircraft destroyed in the air or on the ground; a smattering of enemy riff-raff ships sunk; Japanese Empire nearly cut in two now; pressure increasing on John.

Debits: Two excellent transports [an APA and and LSI(L)] sunk; several hundred Allied fighters and bombers lost during the air war over Formosa (the Allies had a small advantage in numbers until naval bombardments of Formosa commenced, which tipped things decisively in favor of the Allies.

By my reckoning, Peep Show has been a tremendous success to this point. But this has been Peep Show, Part I. Part II will be the invasion of Formosa.

Don't even know if you need Formosa now. Maybe a base.

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ORIGINAL: Lecivius

Just thinking. If you can get a small tanker group hauling from Miri to Manila, Manila and some of the surrounding country will start producing supply on it's own (or am I missing something?). It won't be much, but it would help take some of the logistical strain off. Plus, you can start stockpiling fuel in a naval base. It would mean protecting it from air attack, but there are a few short legged AO's that would be ideal for this.

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

I imagine John would fight for Hong Kong but if you do take it there is a nice repair yard there and it has a low garrison requirement for the Allies.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

(Actually, HK has a slightly larger shipyard than Manila's).

I confess that I don't know why John would fight for Hong Kong. It's no more valuable at this point than many other bases, either from a utility (shipyard/airfield) standpoint or from a VP standpoint. Manila was far more important. So is Foochow. So I don't think he'd react to a move on HK.

I still think there's a decent chance he'll move to intercede in the Formosa campaign.