RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/13/2017 6:25:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

By that test, a Japanese raid on San Diego on December 7 would be an unfair tactic. But nobody does something that unsporting.



I'm not saying it was unsporting, but it happened to me. She sank at the pier before I could put up CAP on my first turn.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/13/2017 6:50:44 PM)

Unless there were mitigating circumstances, a kangaroo court should have convened and taken your opponent to task for such a breach of gaming etiquette.



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/13/2017 7:52:26 PM)

With plenty of input from the Peanut Gallery too.....



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/13/2017 7:55:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Unless there were mitigating circumstances, a kangaroo court should have convened and taken your opponent to task for such a breach of gaming etiquette.

We need some way to deliver a cyber-spanking to the guilty - like locking up their computer for two days except for being able to play "Frogger".



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/13/2017 7:57:06 PM)

I'm not sure exactly why, but I think Geoff Lambert might be the person to mete out punishment on behalf of the kangaroo court. I have a feeling his punishments would be weird, novel, and somehow perfectly fitted to the offense.

Edited to correct spelling of "mete" so that I don't trigger a kangaroo court visitation in the deep of the night....



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/13/2017 8:14:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Unless there were mitigating circumstances, a kangaroo court should have convened and taken your opponent to task for such a breach of gaming etiquette.


We discussed it at the time, and after I surrendered to auto-vic. Many lessons learned. So far as I know he disappeared from the English-speaking forum after that, or at least changed his screen name.

So it goes.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/13/2017 8:18:58 PM)

Also, not for nothing, but in this AAR and in John's--which I read--the level of "advice" is reaching a crescendo. I'm guilty of some; so are many others. This has been a strange game and right now there's a strange endgame. But you guys should be able to just push on and finish. I know you know what you plan to do. For both, I myself will try to just watch and say less. Plenty of time for true after-action discussion when the surrender is in the books. I've felt a couple of times in both there has been a fist-clenching restraint to tell "helpers" to just belt up and let you play.



AcePylut -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/13/2017 8:21:05 PM)

December 6th, 1941, Kimmel, in real life:

"Could the Japanese send 6 carriers and attack Pearl Harbor? Yes. Would they? No."

[:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/13/2017 9:17:31 PM)

Thanks, Moose.

It is an odd game.

May I also say that this is one game where the plan survived contact with the enemy? More than a year ago, while the Allies were embroiled in the DEI invasion, Moose asked me via private message where I was ultimately bound. I answered, "Foochow!" I told him my thoughts, which centered on Luzon and Coastal China. By then - by September 1943 - I already had the troops prepping for both locations.

Formosa was a later development - an opportunity created both by the absence of KB and by the availability of troops and ships but not enough supply to allow a full scale invasion of China. So Formosa became a campaign squeezed in between Luzon/Foochow early and Coastal China later.

My plans weren't set in stone. Other options became available and were considered. Modifications were developed and implemented. But at the heart of all things, what's happening now is the development of plans conceived in the summer of 1943.

Somebody told me once that there was a perception that the Allied advance had been "deliberate" - and that might be a nicer way of saying "plodding." I understand that perspective. The Allies had mobility thanks to carrier superiority. I could have pressed harder, farther, faster. Some players would have. Some players would have done far more with the same set up.

On the other hand, I think I did a reasonable job of recognizing how supply might impact the pace of Allied operations. I reigned things in enough to ensure that my position and my combat units were not unduly jeopardized.

Even still, the Allies moved forward in big and bold steps, from my perspective. It amazes me still that 1.5 years after Sumatra, I have locked up Luzon and Formosa and I'm on the verge of a major campaign victory in Coastal China.

The game seems odd to me in that John pulled so many assets far away from the heart of the action. I know why he did so from a gaming/victory point angle. And I recognize that it dampened the Allied ability to bring in supply a bit. But it's a weird war when Allied carriers park three hexes from Nagasaki and raid day after day after day without real opposition....while KB is off on raids against Oz shipping or providing LRCAP to units in Chumphon, Thailand.

So this has been a weird game, but then I suspect every game that goes this deep will have veered pretty far from reality in many aspects. That's part of the charm and the fun of playing. It's a complicated and challenging game that intrigues with all the possibilities.





Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/13/2017 10:21:36 PM)

12/30/44

Fancy Pants: The Allies prevail in an attack in the hex NW of Shanghai. Very soon now, the dominoes are going to begin falling. The Japanese position in Coastal China is deteriorating rapidly.

It looks like the situation in the South China Sea has changed. No more enemy TFs inbound to Hong Kong and Canton. So what's there now may be the opposition for that particular front. It will take awhile to reduce those two bases since they won't get air assets in meaningful numbers until after Shanghai falls.

What's up with my carrier Avengers? Why aren't they flying missions? (Rhetorical question.)

[image]local://upfiles/8143/C28F6D068B544FB6ACA13740293E0E71.jpg[/image]



RangerJoe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 12:18:14 AM)

Hong Kong is an island. When the Japanese attack it from mainland China, they have a river crossing shock attack so units from Hong Kong crossing to Mainland China would also have a river crossing. So the unit could have come from Canton or Hong Kong.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 12:19:42 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

What's up with my carrier Avengers? Why aren't they flying missions? (Rhetorical question.)




The biggest reason air units refuse is the Air Superiority module results. It's the third (I think) module processing line in the combat replay every day. My guess is the LBA bases in the HI there are so tight that the superiority number is huge and non-LBA bombers do a sick out, even if you have navy fighters detailed. I've never seen USN assets used to strat bomb the HI like this, so I can't say more than that hypo.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 12:25:10 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Hong Kong is an island. When the Japanese attack it from mainland China, they have a river crossing shock attack so units from Hong Kong crossing to Mainland China would also have a river crossing. So the unit could have come from Canton or Hong Kong.


Thanks, Ranger.

I don't think there were any divisions at Canton, so I'm pretty sure this came from Hong Kong. I need to beat the critter up bad before it skedaddles back to safety.



RangerJoe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 1:42:48 AM)

You are welcome.

Beat it up, make it cry for its mommy!

Joe

quote:

The biggest reason air units refuse is the Air Superiority module results. It's the third (I think) module processing line in the combat replay every day. My guess is the LBA bases in the HI there are so tight that the superiority number is huge and non-LBA bombers do a sick out, even if you have navy fighters detailed. I've never seen USN assets used to strat bomb the HI like this, so I can't say more than that hypo.


Would flying the Avengers at night then be successful?



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 2:36:33 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Hong Kong is an island. When the Japanese attack it from mainland China, they have a river crossing shock attack so units from Hong Kong crossing to Mainland China would also have a river crossing. So the unit could have come from Canton or Hong Kong.


Thanks, Ranger.

I don't think there were any divisions at Canton, so I'm pretty sure this came from Hong Kong. I need to beat the critter up bad before it skedaddles back to safety.

The F6 key shows a white hex side, meaning it is crossable by both land and sea. It would be purple if it was a ford.
No shock attack from HK IMO.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 2:41:37 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
The biggest reason air units refuse is the Air Superiority module results. It's the third (I think) module processing line in the combat replay every day. My guess is the LBA bases in the HI there are so tight that the superiority number is huge and non-LBA bombers do a sick out, even if you have navy fighters detailed. I've never seen USN assets used to strat bomb the HI like this, so I can't say more than that hypo.



Well there's a sensible and plausible explanation. That hadn't occurred to me, especially given the Avengers had flown those missions a week back.

Thanks for keeping me from pulling my hair out in perplexity.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 6:38:58 AM)

The Air Superiority results can be used as an intel stand-in to an extent. It "knows" things you can't see. If you have units refuse to fly it can be an analog that he has moved in fighters.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 8:44:58 AM)

12/30/44j

Seeking Victory: As the year comes to a close, this diagram shows where I'm looking to harvest victory points: Strategic Bombing, IJA troops in China; points for certain cities; and hopefully Japanese shipping.

I've always expected to one day have reason to head south to Malaya. An army is prepped to invade down the Peninsula. But I sometimes wonder if the right circumstances will ever exist.

Because, as I look at China, I see the wide opens plains north of Shanghai and Nanking. When Shanghai falls - possibly within a fortnight - the Allies can move north. The air force should manhandle any enemy units in the open. The way might be open to march on Manchuria.

I am pretty sure the opportunity will exist to invade and take Hainan Island in January or February.

And I'm looking at the build up of Japanese forces in the Solomons and the DEI. Is John considering a radical strategy of points harvesting by taking vulnerable rear Allied bases or by other means (I won't go into some of my thoughts in this regard)?

I've been repositioning some ground units for security purposes, but this is taking time. I've also been taking steps to ensure there is a good reactionary air force available, especially for incursions in SoPac or SWPac.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/1D9A22C125C241AD92AD19578758F4F8.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 3:36:43 PM)

John is away on vacation for a few days. I think the war will resume Monday or Tuesday.

In the meantime, I'm looking under the hood at these kinds of things:

1. Pilot and commander quality, beginning first with the carrier fighter squadrons (Superforts, Liberatores, Avengers and LBA fighters need be included in too).
2. Looking at ground troops distribution outside of China. Prep is good for places like Singapore, Korea, Hokkaido, Balikpapan, and Palembang. Which of those will I realistically target? Where do I need to have rear-guards in case of clever enemy mischief like a belated major invasion of....say, Fiji?
3. Logistics. The supply situation in China/Formosa/Luzon looks excellent. I think I was right that supply was good through about February. But I'm now (and have always) been working on getting supply to Oz, safely out of reach of John's raiders. Oz has a healthy level now. So, when the time comes, the fleet of empties safely secured at Boela will report to Normanton to begin loading to carry it to the DEI and then onward. But not now. For the next two to six weeks, Allied shipping will remain dormant, allowing John to grow weary of having subs and raiders positioned in such unfruitful areas.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 3:49:12 PM)

BTW, whats the fascination with Hainan Island? Are there a lot of points there? Seems a meaningless backwater hundreds of miles behind the lines and devoid of any action. Must be better pickings out there somewhere



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 3:54:30 PM)

Lots of small reasons: nearby, troops prepped (so take advantage of it, unless there are better uses available), enemy troops are vulnerable, and John could potentially use Hainan's airfields for deviltry - it's airfields are secure to him and somewhat problematic. Moving on Hainan seems efficient - the troops ships are close by; the troops are close by; Death Star, to the extent needed, is close by. So Hainan makes sense whereas Palembang or Balikpapan take much more effort and are more likely to detract from the forward progression of Allied operations.



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 4:32:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John is away on vacation for a few days. I think the war will resume Monday or Tuesday.

In the meantime, I'm looking under the hood at these kinds of things:

1. Pilot and commander quality, beginning first with the carrier fighter squadrons (Superforts, Liberatores, Avengers and LBA fighters need be included in too).
2. Looking at ground troops distribution outside of China. Prep is good for places like Singapore, Korea, Hokkaido, Balikpapan, and Palembang. Which of those will I realistically target? Where do I need to have rear-guards in case of clever enemy mischief like a belated major invasion of....say, Fiji?
3. Logistics. The supply situation in China/Formosa/Luzon looks excellent. I think I was right that supply was good through about February. But I'm now (and have always) been working on getting supply to Oz, safely out of reach of John's raiders. Oz has a healthy level now. So, when the time comes, the fleet of empties safely secured at Boela will report to Normanton to begin loading to carry it to the DEI and then onward. But not now. For the next two to six weeks, Allied shipping will remain dormant, allowing John to grow weary of having subs and raiders positioned in such unfruitful areas.


In my recent PBM I went through the Shanghai area much later than you are invested there, I pulled out 98% of Allied troops and air support shortly thereafter to invade Japan's HI, and the Chinese Army & Air Force made it to the Border of Korea by game end in late July '45.

As you are there earlier and not invading Japan's HI my advice is: storm across those plains and head for Korea! You might be able to attrite the IJA garrison in Manchuria enough to trigger Soviet activation.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 4:49:57 PM)

Yes, lots of options, and that's the preferred one.

Lowpe long, long ago mentioned that there were so many options opened. This was back about the time I invaded Formosa. He seemed especially interested in a scenario in which a big Allied invasion of Manchuria (and/or Korea) elevated the chances of Soviet activation.

I'm probably still several months away from reaching Manchuria....and I'm trying to end the war as soon as possible now. Strategic bombing is still the bell cow.



jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 8:32:24 PM)

quote:

He seemed especially interested in a scenario in which a big Allied invasion of Manchuria (and/or Korea) elevated the chances of Soviet activation.


He's not the only one. [8D] It would be really cool, and your fans would love it!



JeffroK -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 10:38:54 PM)

IMVHO,

Is it time to "cut out" a major portion of KB?
It seems that its whereabouts are a major influence on your operations.

If JIII is moving into the Solomons/Fiji area, how can you put a block on his lines of retreat.
You should have a large number of aircraft that while not first line, are more than capable against CV based aircraft, even if only to attrit sorties and AAA ammo. Likewise you should have substantial numbers of 2E bombers capable of defending themselves and handing out damage to shipping (Which cannot be well defended given you prior successes)

Do you have a chain of well developed and defended bases which can be your strongpoints and can be reinforced when the line of attack is identified, maybe some transports to fly in an RCT sized reaction force.

Can you rebase some of your SS into the sealanes around possible targets?

Finally, DS seems to be faffing around to little effect, doing a job that LBA should be doing, only takes a lucky SS to take out 2-3 CV and get back all those points you have gained through CV Strat bombing.

IFF the Solomons/Fiji are the target, how do you block his retreat, Torres Strait should be covered by Horn Is & Pt Moresby, this leaves a northerly approach to cover, what would be involved in getting enough (??9-12 CV??) into a blocking position in time to cut them off

Should JIII decide to attack West Oz or elsewhere, there should be similar defences and reactions.

I think your China campaign has gone well, LBA should be carrying the battle and it could be its time to consider changing the approach and catch JIII being too complacent.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/14/2017 10:55:47 PM)

Jeff, thank you for some good ideas there. I'll mull them over.

But I hope you won't mind me addressing why your comments about Death Star are way, way, way wrong.

The Allied lead has increased by 7k points in the second half of December. That's by far the biggest half-month gain since the Allies first took the lead back on August 2. This major bump in scoring is attributable mostly to Death Star being parked off the Japanese coast. The Corsair sweeps have cleared the way for some strong B-24J and B-29 strategic bombing raids. That's where the many of the points have come from.

The most effective and efficient thing I can do is keep battering the Home Islands by air and Coastal China by air, land and sea. These areas are proximate = synergistic = efficient. I can win the game from this position.

Now, if John does something truly sexy like invading Fiji with four divisions, I'll have to do some calculations. How many points will he score? Is it most efficient to go and get them back or to gang up on him elsewhere? I won't know until the situation develops.

But I am placing mobile and naval air assets in this area. They are strong but probably not overpowering. Oz has good infantry, so I'm not too concerned about safety there. Noumea and Fiji need a boost. Infantry is on the way but it will take a bit of time to get them there.

Thanks again. You made me think.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/15/2017 12:03:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, lots of options, and that's the preferred one.

Lowpe long, long ago mentioned that there were so many options opened. This was back about the time I invaded Formosa. He seemed especially interested in a scenario in which a big Allied invasion of Manchuria (and/or Korea) elevated the chances of Soviet activation.

I'm probably still several months away from reaching Manchuria....and I'm trying to end the war as soon as possible now. Strategic bombing is still the bell cow.


I recently counted the Japanese Manchukuo garrison shortly after game start and it was over 14K AV, meaning that a lot can be taken out before there is any chance of Soviet Activation.

But in your game, John pulled all his divisions far forward to deal with Sumatra and then to try and form a wall around the expanded empire.
You smashed a hole in the wall and devastated a lot of divisions - there cannot be much in the way of experienced troops, artillery or tanks left in Manchukuo.

It takes a while after the garrison dips below 8000 for the odds to actually trigger the Soviet Activation. I expect a couple of months after you start attriting the garrison it should happen.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/15/2017 1:16:28 AM)

That's and interesting look at it.

John's had a heckuva lot of divisions beat up the past few months. If I was really experienced or really attentive, I'd have kept track so that I'd have a good feel for what might still be out there. I didn't do that, but I suspect he must be hurting a bit.

Which makes his strategy in the Hong Kong/Canton sector interesting. He really worked to push troops in there. Did he have sufficient troops to allow that? If not, does that Pocket tie up enough Allied troops to make it worthwhile? (I doubt that, because the Chinese and the air force are going to handle that Pocket while the Western Allied armies continue to move east/north into the north China plains.




Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/15/2017 1:20:09 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


I recently counted the Japanese Manchukuo garrison shortly after game start and it was over 14K AV, meaning that a lot can be taken out before there is any chance of Soviet Activation.



Was that a scenario 2 game...had to be.



Flicker -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/15/2017 8:59:16 PM)

CR, thanks for writing a compelling AAR, I really enjoy reading it. I am pleased to see the possibility of Soviet activation but it seems like you may not need it.

I'm curious about Port Blair. By itself it's kinda like Hainan Island, but I see both as patrol stations for larger ports (Rangoon and Hong Kong/Canton).

It seems that pumping loads of supply to Rangoon safely is important to future offensives.

BTW to those concerned by my prior admission to contact with John's AAR, it was to offer best wishes for his health. Else I have only read CR's AAR.



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