RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/15/2017 9:07:46 PM)

Flicker, folks on this forum are very good at keeping Op Sec, even if they read both AARs, so the assumption is that unless they accidentally post something that gives away some info, any contacts they have are neutral in game terms and positive in forum fellowship.
Your thanks to CR is a good example of what is great about the membership. [:)]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/15/2017 10:08:50 PM)

Port Blair has been a game within a game. You guys might enjoy this.

After taking Rangoon, I was worried about enemy raids (sea, air, KB) against the merchant traffic in and out of Rangoon. I watched PB carefully. There was never a raid nor ever any detection. Eventually it became clear the John had a de Minimis garrison there. However, he still has a base force at one of the other Andamans. He's been waiting for the day I jumped on the weakly garrisoned PB, hoping to strike a blow with bombers.

Recently I began reconning all of the Andamans just to give John something to think about. I think he may have taken the bait and posted KB in the vicinity anticipating an invasion (if you're reading his AAR, you'll know if I'm sniffing glue in this case). John's recent inexplicable carrier foray into the Andaman Sea with LRCAP of Chumphon made me wonder.

I do have a small carrier force in the Bay of Bengal. It can't go up against anything decent. But if the coast becomes clear enough, eventually the Allies will invade PB and the nearby islands. The troops are ready and a modest number of transports are in theater.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/16/2017 11:41:32 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


I recently counted the Japanese Manchukuo garrison shortly after game start and it was over 14K AV, meaning that a lot can be taken out before there is any chance of Soviet Activation.



Was that a scenario 2 game...had to be.


I don't think Scen 2 boosts any of the units that start at or arrive in Manchuria.

There may be indirect effects on the garrison level due to the additional units that are available, essentially giving the Japanese more butter to cover the bread, but that's it I think.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/16/2017 6:20:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


I recently counted the Japanese Manchukuo garrison shortly after game start and it was over 14K AV, meaning that a lot can be taken out before there is any chance of Soviet Activation.



Was that a scenario 2 game...had to be.


I don't think Scen 2 boosts any of the units that start at or arrive in Manchuria.

There may be indirect effects on the garrison level due to the additional units that are available, essentially giving the Japanese more butter to cover the bread, but that's it I think.


Looked it up and stock 1 is 11,450.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/16/2017 7:19:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


I recently counted the Japanese Manchukuo garrison shortly after game start and it was over 14K AV, meaning that a lot can be taken out before there is any chance of Soviet Activation.



Was that a scenario 2 game...had to be.


I don't think Scen 2 boosts any of the units that start at or arrive in Manchuria.

There may be indirect effects on the garrison level due to the additional units that are available, essentially giving the Japanese more butter to cover the bread, but that's it I think.


Looked it up and stock 1 is 11,450.


However large it was, the main point I was trying to make is that John seems to have moved almost everything forward early on so it won't take much attrition to breach the 8000 AV garrison minimum, but until it is much lower the odds of activation are still small. A few months of effort would be required.



Crackaces -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/17/2017 1:09:15 AM)

The supply situation in my game with an invasion of China was quite insidious. With an escalation of attacks the IJ supply came from areas not involved with the hostilities. My opponent complained That suddenly without warning multiple bases showed yellow then red ! ..I assume the tide of supply is like the Allies where it moves over time overland to where the action is happening.. it takes time to refill bases if they are deplete .. given the amount of clear terrain after Nanking I suspect the Allies will be arriving in the heart of the matter just about the time the IJ might need a lot of supply to sustain operations ...



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/17/2017 3:51:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

John seems to have moved almost everything forward early on so it won't take much attrition to breach the 8000 AV garrison minimum


SOP, for JFBs...run the garrison down to 8500 as a cushion for withdrawing troops (which does happen). There is one AAR where this did trigger Sov activation early.






Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/17/2017 3:56:27 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

The supply situation in my game with an invasion of China was quite insidious. With an escalation of attacks the IJ supply came from areas not involved with the hostilities. My opponent complained That suddenly without warning multiple bases showed yellow then red !


Not only the increase in fighting, but all of sudden the supply lines aren't there anymore, and Japan forces supply off road, thru woods and worse terrain, causing quite a bit of wastage. You really have to pay attention...and still you can't accomplish what you would like.



Kitakami -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/17/2017 1:34:12 PM)

Congratulations on reaching 1945. You and your opponent have played a very interesting game (can't comment, reading both AARs), so thank you to both!



Crackaces -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/17/2017 2:37:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

The supply situation in my game with an invasion of China was quite insidious. With an escalation of attacks the IJ supply came from areas not involved with the hostilities. My opponent complained That suddenly without warning multiple bases showed yellow then red !


Not only the increase in fighting, but all of sudden the supply lines aren't there anymore, and Japan forces supply off road, thru woods and worse terrain, causing quite a bit of wastage. You really have to pay attention...and still you can't accomplish what you would like.



... and the IJ have to shove a lot of supply into the ports to have it propagate into the interior .. if John has not been doing this[ massive supply effort into China] I believe it is too late and a sudden rude collapse is imminent .. I do know when I was fighting in China the collapse was quite sudden and then the IJ could not put up resistance .. every combat marked with (-) supply
I might also add the observation that the Allies have engaged in high firepower lower CV odds fights killing the IJ but not necessary moving them as much or as fast ... the CV calculations change with the worsening supply situation .. ;)



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/17/2017 9:45:24 PM)

12/31/44

Intelligence Screen: Here we are at the end of 1944. Not many games make it this far. That we have done so is largely a testament to John's faithfulness. He's stuck to it when so many give it up.

I told him via email that I used to think '41 and '42 were the most exciting time for the Allies. That's when things are toughest and on a knife's edge. But now I've found I like later in the game just as much. What a great, fun, fulfilling, challenging, exciting way to spend time!

So a tip of the cap to John for making it to 1945.

Many years ago, I summarized the game this way:

1941: The Year of Surprise.
1942: The Year of Japanese Expansion.
1943: The Year of Attrition.
1944: The Year of Allied expansion.
1945: The Year of Victory.

Let's see how and when victory comes. I think it will be via strategic bombing and a large scale offensives in China and possibly Manchuria and Korea. But things will happen elsewhere. And I'm watching John to see what rabbits he might pull out of his hat.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/05AE3D05657240CE921D722A30C604C2.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/17/2017 10:05:01 PM)

12/31/44

Fancy Pants: The year ended fairly quietly, as my biggest attack didn't materialize. Corsairs set to sweep Nagasaki didn't fly, either due to weather or air superiority. They'll try again tomorrow. If they don't fly, I'll know its air superiority.

Things taking shape in the Coastal China campaign, though John is fighting his weary army hard.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/9D1549F800504677ABEC3DEEF78D9373.jpg[/image]



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/17/2017 10:10:21 PM)

....

[image]local://upfiles/55056/003465BE306840409FC8FE70D8406AFB.jpg[/image]



DW -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/17/2017 10:59:29 PM)

quote:

That we have done so is largely a testament to John's faithfulness. He's stuck to it when so many give it up.


I was skeptical that JIII would stick it out.

This is one instance where I'm pleased to have been proven wrong.

JIII has both grit and honor and I won't underestimate him again.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/18/2017 6:39:37 PM)

New Year's Day 1945

Fancy Pants: Allied troops are making good progress in getting into position for key attacks upcoming; and progress made against certain enemy stacks NW of Shanghai and NW of Hangchow. I think the ice is breaking beneath John's feet. I'll know more in about three or four days.

Death Star: Carrier fighters decline to sweep. I'm buying into Moose's air superiority theory. I'll try one more day, with several Hellcat squadrons to supplement the sweeps. If that doesn't work, I'll switch to a Plan B for Death Star temporarily.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/537588B5602940BB9D3F1FB9056BD68C.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/19/2017 3:35:57 PM)

1/2/44

Sweeping Nagasaki: The carrier fighters finally broke loose and swept Nagasaki. The Hellcats started the onslaught, about 40 at a time. Then came a few Corsairs. These were strong enough to finally put the Japanese CAP out of action, so when a massive sweep of 700 Corsairs arrived, there was no opposition. I would've liked to have seen that 700-plane raid take on 250 or 300 fighters.

On the day, enemy losses were roughly 3:1.

But this raises several important questions:

1. What prevented the sweeps previously? Weather? Or was it indeed air superiority that the extra 150 or so Hellcats overcame? I confess I really don't know.
2. John's fighters didn't perform well against Hellcats. Is this a reflection of his pilot quality, as referred to yesterday, or was this an anomaly?
3. Does he still have "countless" fighters, handled by select pilots, that can handle CAP over his major bases for a long time to come?
4. Or are the Allies begin to break his back, from an air superiority standpoint?
5. Is it time to rev up the bombers, or should I sweep for a few more days to get a better feel for things.

One question that I think I know the answer to: It is indeed better for Death Star to remain on station here, serving in this Air Superiority role. If the Allies can achieve air superiority, or at a minimum keep John guessing and off balance, that enhances strategic bombing considerably. And SB is definitely the most efficient way to win the war.

Tomorrow I am likely to try for another massed sweep of either Nagasaki or Fukuoka. I may also try a variation, where the main sweeps hit one of those bases while a smaller sweep targets a secondary, less-defended target that will then also be hit by bombers. Shimonoseki is one possibility.

If Plan A for the Allied carriers become unnecessary or unproductive, Plan B involves the invasion of Malaya, refueling at Miri, and brining in additional supply from Boela. I'd prefer not to trigger that mission for at least a month, as optimally I'd like the empties at Boela to retrieve the supply from Oz rather than drawing down the big reserve at Boela itself.





[image]local://upfiles/8143/D2537A0C427249A48BF568F4D06CCA44.jpg[/image]



Rusty1961 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/19/2017 3:53:45 PM)

If I were the Japanese opponent, I would have long ago committed my best pilots to the defense of Japan.

Pretty safe to say he's lost the training/EXP war.

Congrats.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/19/2017 4:44:04 PM)

1/2/44

Fancy Pants: Big cracks in the ice on the Shanghai Front. John has problems everywhere. Once this front collapses, the best analogy may be France in August 1944. The plains to the north beckon. The Allied air force will just eat up any enemy units in that terrain.

What does John do about his Home Islands air defenses after Nagasaki today? I'm targeting Nagasaki again tomorrow. He might beef up his defenses immensely, drawing in everything he can....or he may just vacate the premises, figuring the base is already beat up badly. So I'll try the Avengers again, hoping for strong, points-generating strikes against his industry.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/340EF85E465047DBAF2D8E6602E07F11.jpg[/image]



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/19/2017 5:24:05 PM)

Japan will usually run out of good pilots long before they run out of good airframes. Compound this with the fact that the IJN pilots have not been involved in much fighting at all. You have been going up against IJA pilots almost exclusively. He probably has good ones left but the overall quality may be starting to fall. John may be pretty deep in good IJN pilots so if the IJA guys are indeed low he can probably bring in a bunch of good navy guys



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/19/2017 9:33:55 PM)

I think John would be willing to divert his carrier fighter squadrons to land use, in an emergency and for a limited period.

But I don't think he'd do so permanently or in a situation where it might not mean much. I just can't imagine him diminishing his carrier arm....it's about all he has left to have fun with.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/19/2017 10:02:14 PM)

not sure if Japan has any large , IJN non carrier fighter groups. I know John had some pretty big IJA formations in the DEI and probably has a bunch scattered around the Pacific bases. Perhaps it's time to call them home? Or maybe he already did. Seems your Navy pools are pretty deep in both fighters and pilots so you can go another couple of rounds and see if the quality continues to drop off. BTW, are you seeing many bombers? It occurs to me you haven't seen many of those and you are running large ground forces. Surprised he has not taken a swing at those



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/19/2017 10:12:30 PM)

John's air force was still pretty active until recently. Since the air war against the Home Islands really escalated a month ago, he seems to have withdrawn most of his air forces from China/Malaya. Every now and then he'll devote a fighter squadron or two to LRCAP, or a Frances squadron to target Allied ground units. Occasionally he scores but mostly he gets clobbered pretty hard.

So I think he's circling the wagons, devoting most of his air force to the defense of the Home Islands.

But I could be wrong. I don't have enough of a feel for Japan's capabilities this late to know for sure what he still has, what he might do, and what constraints he's likely operating under.



Crackaces -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/19/2017 10:50:33 PM)

One thing .. the low “odds “ is emphasized on your diagrams but causulties are calculated by firepower .. so one could have 1:3 odds and not move a stack but superior firepower and disable / destroy a bunch of squads ..yes ..
eventually the odds change over time. ...

In an unintended way this has been much worse for the IJA IMHO because there has been no free retreat .. just the steady drip drip drip of eventual destruction..



CaptBeefheart -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/20/2017 4:48:56 AM)

What's the fort level at Shanghai?

Cheers,
CC



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/20/2017 6:25:08 PM)

1/3/44

Raid on Nagasaki: Avengers sortie and score well vs. several industrial targets. The Liberators didn't do much, despite no opposition. The Hellcats swept first, again. The results weren't as pretty as yesterday, but looking under the engine, it seems that they scored at about 2:1 (a lot of Allied losses came later in the day: Avengers and some Beauforts).

Tomorrows raid will mix things up again. I'm trying again to match up the main Corsair sweep vs. John's CAP. Thus far I've swung and missed multiple times. Let's see what happens.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/27DCF8850B3142C3948FBB00069C841D.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/20/2017 6:30:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody
What's the fort level at Shanghai?
Cheers,
CC


Shanghai forts 5.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/20/2017 6:55:35 PM)

1/3/44

Fancy Pants: Ice continues to crack beneath John's feet.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/72C441A5AC004EECAD7468BF59BDAF56.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/20/2017 7:00:54 PM)

1/3/44

Battle of Shanghai: Details on diagram.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/B2C64BC965B8462B89090B729C691879.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/20/2017 11:39:55 PM)

1/4/45

Fancy Pants: The Allies take Soochow, isolating Shanghai. See diagram for details.

China Going Forward: Shanghai should fall in a week or so. Then the Allies will move on Nanking. While there's a chance John will bring in reinforcements from the north, I think the Allies will overwhelm enemy defenses. Allied units will be crossing the rivers and entering the planes, looking to isolate Nanking or to badger or beat up on retiring enemy units.

Most Chinese units will be remaining behind, serving in garrison roles. This will free up the Western Allied units to charge across the plains.

A good bit of the Chinese army is actively handling the Hong Kong/Canton Front and the Kukong Front.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/113F45C3CF38464A812A3F47DD55BD45.jpg[/image]



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/21/2017 12:38:58 AM)

I expect supply has to be near exhausted in China. You might be able to roll some of those cities to the North. Anything with big points up there? If you ever got loose in that open country it would not be pretty



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