RE: Turn 17 (Full Version)

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Toidi -> RE: Turn 17 (1/16/2014 4:38:58 AM)

Well, if your opponent could not really break your lines in '41, the chances he will be able to do it in '42 are small. Soviets in '42 are in most respects stronger than in '41 and can counter attack just as efficiently with the corps.

Things might be different if you had at the moment 4.5 million army and around 280 arm points. As it is now, only huge mistakes could lead Soviets to losing the war. And the mild blizzard does not matter too much - as long as he has his infantry on the front line, they lose morale, which means that in '42 they are at 70 morale, not 75 and not 80+ as before. If he keeps tank divisions on the front too, he will have not enough tanks in '42 to do anything meaningful - not to mention that tanks with low morale are just useless.

Finally, your morale situation at the moment is good. As such, you will not be much affected by lower morale in '42 unless you start losing many battles (which is unlikely).

Honestly, situation of Axis is dramatic and hopeless. Normally, your opponent would need 1.5-2 millions of troops encircled in '42 for a draw. In this game, he needs 3-4 millions. That is impossible against competent Soviet player. You will have enough troops for a carpet and 3+ armies of quality reserve units ready to be thrown at the attacking tanks. And that is still optimistic - knowing about the 30cv wall waiting for him in the first and second line of forts, he may struggle to attack at all. Germans may just keep the front static in '42 and hope that it will stay this way for as long as possible - given he may have lot of man and arm in the pool, German player may be under illusion that this is doable. I think Steve would not do it as his prime choice, but he may do it because of necessity and futility of any advance.

To conclude, yes, you did not win the war, but your chances of winning are really high. So high that I would just give up being Axis, and would be very happy to accept my opponent surrender as Soviet as 2+ years grinding towards Berlin are not really that fun - for most part there is not that much tactics involved thus shifting the counters can be quite boring...


quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

I'm not won this war. The german has several strong troops, and minimal causes. During the winter turns, I can't break the german lines around Leningrad, and Moscow. Level 2-3 fortification in difficult terrain, plus reserve panzers, and of course mild winter, negates any chance for succesfull breaktrough. Only South from Tula seems to have any chance breaking the germans line.
Honestly I never saw rumanian troops, so I belive they building a fortification line since 8-10 turn ago.




Gabriel B. -> RE: Turn 17 (1/16/2014 6:43:00 AM)

70 morale is not much but the units in the north and center do not nead more in 1942, the southen wing will have to be rebuild .

If he spares his mechanised forces either in cities or back home, all he needs is the 16 high morale infantry divisions Pelton advocates to rebuild the south .




SigUp -> RE: Turn 17 (1/16/2014 6:55:23 AM)

Ah, that blizzard auto morale loss... Does this morale loss also happen in March 42? Anyway, in my game I'm also starting to ponder which (infantry) divisions to pull into cities for at least December and January. What do you define as high morale divisions, above 85?



Gabriel B. -> RE: Turn 17 (1/16/2014 9:13:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: SigUp

Ah, that blizzard auto morale loss... Does this morale loss also happen in March 42? Anyway, in my game I'm also starting to ponder which (infantry) divisions to pull into cities for at least December and January. What do you define as high morale divisions, above 85?


Only in february , and yes 85 + ,

I had settled for this organisation to brake trough carpets :

3 infantry corps : each with 2 high morale divisions + one 70 morale div. received as reiforcement in 1942.
1 panzer corps : 2 tanks + 1 motorised .

the newly formed infantry corps should pack 34-35 ofensive CV alowing to crack with hasty atacks anything that does not have at least 16 defensive CV.





Callistrid -> WTF (1/17/2014 9:10:36 AM)

Turn 20 Mud

6 soviet division attack 2 romaninan division during the mud turn. The romaninas stand in a lvl 1 fortification and all soviet divs attack from a minor river.
The results: 1 unharmed, full stregth rumanian division totally destroyed. How could it be possible?



[image]local://upfiles/39337/9EF0FCB1636C42F1B83A67BAFCD919B7.jpg[/image]



Peltonx -> RE: Turn 17 (1/17/2014 9:40:27 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Toidi

If I were Axis player I would surrender. In my opinion only some huge errors on the Soviet side can give Axis some chance for a draw. Otherwise the Red Army will be in Berlin in '44. Honestly, Callistrid, you should play some more demanding opponents... Sapper would give you a good game, I think. Dave is good player, but you have the Soviet strategy well developed and refined quite some time ago - now only some rather innovative Axis strategy can cause you troubles...


The game is so screwed up as has been pointed out by the Old Guard.
You will never get a good game by anyone, because it is hard coded into game for and easy win by SHC if you have any idea about what you are doing.
It is simply impossible all things being equal for Germany to do any better then the lines in this game, historical loses, historical advance lines in 1941, historical attacks during blizzard, historical 42 and historical 43-45 is simply never going to happen. We have seen it yr after yr and aar after aar. All things being equal, SHC will attack 10-20 times per turn in summer of 1941, SHC will have a Middle Earth blizzard offensive and pocket many German divisions ( historically only Russian divisions were pocketed during 41/42 winter )
, Russia will go over to a general front wide offensive in mid summer 42 and have zero logistics issue until the game ends in late 1944.

A completely unhistorical war game.

And its not based on anything to do with history.

Your wasting your time playing until .14 comes out and you can hit the 1v1=2v1 option, but people will keep wasting their time.

Its human nature for people to try and convince themselves that 1+1=3 when someone else says that 1+1=2.



Callistrid -> RE: Turn 17 (1/17/2014 9:59:09 AM)

1v1=2v1 rule negates any encirclement chance on Leningrad and Moscow front.



timmyab -> RE: Turn 17 (1/17/2014 2:25:54 PM)

The thing is though that the 1:1 rule may not even make a difference in this case. A very similar result may apply at 8.7:1 final odds. It's the combat system itself that is at fault, it underestimates the difficulties that attackers face, especially when attacking prepared positions, and also values Soviet numbers too highly. It's a silly system that should have been strangled at birth.



Gabriel B. -> RE: WTF (1/17/2014 2:48:53 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

Turn 20 Mud

6 soviet division attack 2 romaninan division during the mud turn. The romaninas stand in a lvl 1 fortification and all soviet divs attack from a minor river.
The results: 1 unharmed, full stregth rumanian division totally destroyed. How could it be possible?




That is around the Mius river, and almost certain 100 mp ahead of the railhead .
Units more than 100 mp are considered in isolated state .

Rail repairs in the south cannot keep up , 25 mp becomes 100 mp during mud turns.






Flaviusx -> RE: WTF (1/17/2014 4:03:56 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

Turn 20 Mud

6 soviet division attack 2 romaninan division during the mud turn. The romaninas stand in a lvl 1 fortification and all soviet divs attack from a minor river.
The results: 1 unharmed, full stregth rumanian division totally destroyed. How could it be possible?




That is around the Mius river, and almost certain 100 mp ahead of the railhead .
Units more than 100 mp are considered in isolated state .

Rail repairs in the south cannot keep up , 25 mp becomes 100 mp during mud turns.






The odd thing here is that only one of the Romanian units defending surrendered, the other one retreated. They ought both be considered isolated if they are indeed that far ahead of the railhead.

It's a real headscratcher.



Callistrid -> RE: WTF (1/17/2014 5:04:12 PM)

They had a free way to retreat. Plus I never hit rumanians before that attack. So a full strength division around 45-50 morale just easily surrend.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

Turn 20 Mud

6 soviet division attack 2 romaninan division during the mud turn. The romaninas stand in a lvl 1 fortification and all soviet divs attack from a minor river.
The results: 1 unharmed, full stregth rumanian division totally destroyed. How could it be possible?




That is around the Mius river, and almost certain 100 mp ahead of the railhead .
Units more than 100 mp are considered in isolated state .

Rail repairs in the south cannot keep up , 25 mp becomes 100 mp during mud turns.






The odd thing here is that only one of the Romanian units defending surrendered, the other one retreated. They ought both be considered isolated if they are indeed that far ahead of the railhead.

It's a real headscratcher.

quote:


The odd thing here is that only one of the Romanian units defending surrendered, the other one retreated. They ought both be considered isolated if they are indeed that far ahead of the railhead.

It's a real headscratcher.



Flaviusx -> RE: WTF (1/17/2014 5:19:00 PM)

Maybe the Romanians are a bit tougher than the Sovs, but a retreat result by an isolated Soviet unit early on is practically an automatic death sentence regardless of valid retreat paths. Do the Romanians get as high as 50 morale in 1941?





Callistrid -> RE: WTF (1/17/2014 5:30:05 PM)

Here is the situation. 6 soviet division attack 2 rumanian division.
The rumanians have lvl 1 fortification, plus the river. The troops are fresh, unharmed (they never meet with soviets before).
6 soviet divs has morale level around 45-48. TOE 90-95

I understand the mud reduce the effective of armies, but that result was tough.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Maybe the Romanians are a bit tougher than the Sovs, but a retreat result by an isolated Soviet unit early on is practically an automatic death sentence regardless of valid retreat paths. Do the Romanians get as high as 50 morale in 1941?






[image]local://upfiles/39337/8A3FA3E2CE3E45908973DB16A407D91F.jpg[/image]



gingerbread -> RE: WTF (1/17/2014 5:47:21 PM)

Could be a Shatter result that converted to a Surrender if 101+ MP from supply.



Toidi -> RE: WTF (1/17/2014 9:50:01 PM)

Perfectly normal result. The Romanian units would normally rout, hence they surrender (they are in the cut-off state due too 100+mp). The other unit would retreat, so it retreated. Same as in encirclement, units which can retreat and would not rout before/during retreat, will not surrender.

Romanian units have NM of 35 which makes them very fragile.

T.



Gabriel B. -> RE: WTF (1/18/2014 7:15:20 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

Turn 20 Mud

6 soviet division attack 2 romaninan division during the mud turn. The romaninas stand in a lvl 1 fortification and all soviet divs attack from a minor river.
The results: 1 unharmed, full stregth rumanian division totally destroyed. How could it be possible?




That is around the Mius river, and almost certain 100 mp ahead of the railhead .
Units more than 100 mp are considered in isolated state .

Rail repairs in the south cannot keep up , 25 mp becomes 100 mp during mud turns.






The odd thing here is that only one of the Romanian units defending surrendered, the other one retreated. They ought both be considered isolated if they are indeed that far ahead of the railhead.

It's a real headscratcher.



The frontier division was made up of border guards ,and has morale set 5 points higher.
13th infantry are just drafted peasants .
the result is tough because the units do not rebuild, but since the units only had 26,000
between them , i would not call them unharmed .
at full strenght they should have 34,000 men .





Callistrid -> RE: WTF (1/18/2014 3:45:05 PM)

Two other rumanian died in the same way...



Callistrid -> Operation Kutuzov (1/22/2014 1:18:28 PM)

T26 Operation Kutuzov

The full soviet army assault the german frontline.

Around Leningrad, the the heavy german resistance slow the great operation, and force the soviet army into a bloody battle. The brave red soldiers frontal attack the deep, and heavyli fortified german positions. High looses in both side, but the frontline is unharmed.

At the gates of moscow, the soviet are more succesfull. 6 german infantry divisions where trapped, and next turn eliminated. German motorized and panzer troops try to stop the advance, but with minimal succes.

In the Bryansk-Dnyeprpetrovsk line, there is no german resistance. The soviet cavalry divisions march without to met with enemy troops.

Around south three soviet front attack the AGS troops. The situation is helpless for the german forces, only the retreat can save those troops. But the cavalry divisions don't give them time to rest and reorganize. Kharkov, Stalino, Kursk, Orel was liberated from the enemy.

The purple line is the begining of T24 frontline.


[image]local://upfiles/39337/92F1CD5382E741A78517BFCE5CE8372F.jpg[/image]



Callistrid -> RE: Operation Kutuzov (1/22/2014 1:32:11 PM)

T26 OOB, and looses screen

Both side has low casulties. Soviet POW are less then 1M, so the hiwis won't help the german efforts.
3:1 loose ratio is acceptable form the red side.


[image]local://upfiles/39337/ED2F1A697E834DBF8D95574B135B8DCA.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> RE: Operation Kutuzov (1/22/2014 8:02:10 PM)

that is a lot of damage you have just inflicted. Is it just your (lack of) intelligence or are there really no axis forces in the northern portion of the Ukraine?



smokindave34 -> RE: Operation Kutuzov (1/22/2014 9:25:56 PM)

I notified Callistrid that I am going to resign from our game. This is the third game in a row (Sapper, M60, Callistrid) where I have been handled decisively in '41 by solid Soviet opponents and I see no reason to go forward. I decided to stand and fight and have 7 divisions surrounded two turns into the blizzard. I used to be able to handle the axis well enough to produce a competitive game even against very good players (The Pro's) but no longer. This game is extremely challenging to play as axis right now against solid opponents (as other axis players better than I have noted) and I no longer seem to be able to make it into '43 with any real chance of standing up to the Soviets. Excellent game by you Callistrid - sorry to end it on you so quickly! I'll have to hang up my Field Marshall's baton for a while.....



Callistrid -> Consequence of the Soviet side (1/22/2014 10:23:28 PM)

This game is over, and Dave was a very good opponent. Fighting on the Germans side is tough. It's enough to make a little mistake, and the war is lost. Let's see what I learn with the Soviet

1. Playing with the Soviet is easy. The sapper an construction brigades build fortification easily, and if you retreat on the first six turns, the saved troops with the reinforcements can hardly hit the advancing German troops. With the new rule the German can't pocket troops, because the encirclement can be broke easily.

2. Mild winter. Strong Soviet defeat the German, weak not. So the successful winter operation depend on how powerful is the Soviet army, not what my opponent did. On my game against Dave there infantry stack in level 2 fortification was easy to beat.

3. Paratroops. I never drop them, but using them could DE devastating. Easy method to break the supply line, or to isolate troops.




Callistrid -> RE: Consequence of the Soviet side (1/22/2014 10:38:25 PM)

4. The Soviet have more rail yard then it should to have. With 100k+ it's easy to transport full fronts to threatened sectors. Using your short transport lines, the German will always face with strong troops in the critical sectors. And the factory evacuation is too fast. In the first seven turn, all what is unorganised sent to the urals.

5. Retreat, retreat, retreat. There is no reason to stand and fight on the first seven turn. Only around Leningrad, but that could be managed. The German could move close to Moscow, but never capture.

6. nonrandom weather. The nonrandom weather is not just a German favors. Because always the Soviet moves second, it's easy to be brave without consequences. You know when will be mud, and when could rest the troops, move forward to refit, or launch attack, when normally never do, because you don't know what will be the next weather.


And the most important. The 2/1 rule. It wag ugly when I start beating the German army around turn 14. The clear terrain gains no bonus defenses, and 6~9 cv into can be hit, without fear. And what is real worse, when you start attacking the front, launch 10+ successful attack.



Disgruntled Veteran -> RE: Operation Kutuzov (1/22/2014 11:29:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: smokindave34

I notified Callistrid that I am going to resign from our game. This is the third game in a row (Sapper, M60, Callistrid) where I have been handled decisively in '41 by solid Soviet opponents and I see no reason to go forward. I decided to stand and fight and have 7 divisions surrounded two turns into the blizzard. I used to be able to handle the axis well enough to produce a competitive game even against very good players (The Pro's) but no longer. This game is extremely challenging to play as axis right now against solid opponents (as other axis players better than I have noted) and I no longer seem to be able to make it into '43 with any real chance of standing up to the Soviets. Excellent game by you Callistrid - sorry to end it on you so quickly! I'll have to hang up my Field Marshall's baton for a while.....


Enjoyed the AAR and hope you stick with the game. However, in this case, there is no shame in throwing in the towel. This game is a lot of time investment and if you don't get a better than average 41 its very hard to have an enjoyable game. I'm having mixed results myself. Doing fairly well with A-Game, getting dominated by the Pro's so I understand the sentiment.



Callistrid -> RE: Operation Kutuzov (1/23/2014 2:48:50 PM)

Dave. What was in the center. The Bryansk-D town area was empty?



Peltonx -> RE: Consequence of the Soviet side (1/23/2014 7:35:34 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

This game is over, and Dave was a very good opponent. Fighting on the Germans side is tough. It's enough to make a little mistake, and the war is lost. Let's see what I learn with the Soviet

1. Playing with the Soviet is easy. The sapper an construction brigades build fortification easily, and if you retreat on the first six turns, the saved troops with the reinforcements can hardly hit the advancing German troops. With the new rule the German can't pocket troops, because the encirclement can be broke easily.

2. Mild winter. Strong Soviet defeat the German, weak not. So the successful winter operation depend on how powerful is the Soviet army, not what my opponent did. On my game against Dave there infantry stack in level 2 fortification was easy to beat.

3. Paratroops. I never drop them, but using them could DE devastating. Easy method to break the supply line, or to isolate troops.




The game is so screwed up right now far worse then 1 to 2 years ago.

Sad to say, but its really not worth playing right now.

You can close your eyes and win so easily now as Russian player-game is a complete waste of time in its current state.

This is not opinion but simply fact in AAR after AAR

Not sure how a game can be worse off then 2 years ago, but it clearly is.



Callistrid -> RE: Consequence of the Soviet side (1/23/2014 7:56:54 PM)

The soviet can save his army. It's easy to retreat. After 15-20 game the best soviet stategy is to fall back, and retake the lost territory during the blizzard turns. The geman can't do anything.



Michael T -> RE: Consequence of the Soviet side (1/23/2014 7:57:57 PM)

quote:

The game is so screwed up right now far worse then 1 to 2 years ago.

Sad to say, but its really not worth playing right now.

You can close your eyes and win so easily now as Russian player-game is a complete waste of time in its current state.

This is not opinion but simply fact in AAR after AAR

Not sure how a game can be worse off then 2 years ago, but it clearly is.


+1

I am not even sure now the 1:1 > 2:1 option will help. Something has gone badly wrong with the game in the last 12 months. Meanwhile I am enjoying AGW.



Callistrid -> RE: Consequence of the Soviet side (1/23/2014 7:59:25 PM)

The soviet retreat is the great problem.
If the russuian will stand and fight, he will be defeated. If fall back the game is won.




Peltonx -> RE: Consequence of the Soviet side (1/23/2014 8:01:07 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

The soviet can save his army. It's easy to retreat. After 15-20 game the best soviet stategy is to fall back, and retake the lost territory during the blizzard turns. The geman can't do anything.


.12 or one of the patches greatly lowered German MP's so it impossible to do much of anything now.

If you have any skills you can hold Leningrad, Smolensk to Just east of D-town now, plus exploit the sht out of 1v1=2v1.

As you say mild winter is a joke.

Sure a expert German can easly defeat a less then average Russian player, but all things being equal game is a disaster in it current state.

Its not fun because it is so predictable- when one side can win 100% of the time something is majorly screwed up.



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