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ExNusquam -> RE: Naval and Defense News (10/14/2016 3:08:02 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: mikmyk
Response was perfect. Precision strikes on relevant targets. I'm hoping they'll hit the arms dumps too that might be storing the missiles.
Mike
Mike, I concur with your assessment. Much about the missile exchanges over the last 2 weeks has not been publicly disclosed, but there's quite a bit we can determine from the information released.
1. The USNI article says that the 3 Radar sites were also active on 30 September when the Swift was hit. This indicates that the US has been watching these sites preemptively, well before the first incident.
2. Tacking on to that point, the fact that the Radars were hit within 24 hours after the second incident likely means that the US had target/weaponeering plans in place already. Since nearly 2 weeks have passed since first CDCM shot, there has been ample time to ensure that these were the sensors that were passing targets to the CDCM TELs.
3. While we don't know the exact combination of weapons/countermeasures employed in each exchange, this is a big for the USN; It's been 25 years since anyone last successfully defeated a Warshot ASM. This means several things:
a. The USN's training has not atrophied over 25 years of doing nothing but shooting LACMs.
b. The AEGIS system is still effective in the littoral.
c. Alternatively, the Houthi's have poor coordination in their CDCM C2 systems and either launched out of range or engaged the wrong vessels (Much like MV Moonlight was hit when Hezbollah engaged the INS Hanit).
4. Unless there are further CDCM shots I don't expect the US to undertake inland strikes against the Houthi CDCM TELs or Ammo dumps. The US is attempting to insert itself as a neutral party as part of a political resolution, and additional strikes would undermine this narrative.
5. Pending more information or additional launches, I think the biggest impact this will is on shipping through the Bab el Mandeb strait. It will be interesting to see what next months statistics are on tonnage transiting through BAM and the Suez.
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