RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (Full Version)

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Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/7/2016 10:20:02 AM)

Germany will take land. This impulse I will attack CW div, 3-3 INF and 3-5 CAV if I get good enough odds.

It would be awesome if Italy gets Toulouse this impulse. It might not be possible in this weather. Attack to Spain would be faster and easier without last French units sitting in Toulouse.

Destroying CW transporter must wait one impulse...

I get access to my computer this evening.

Edit: German attacks are all automatic. They can also try 3,3:1 attack against INF adjacent to Warsaw. Warsaw attack would be even weaker.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/7/2016 1:17:51 PM)

I'm not sure what USSR is doing. They have following units in German border:

-CAV in East Poland.

-INF, INF div, AA gun and 2x AT gun in Rumanian border.

All planes and other land units are in Persia.


Are they trying to make Germany attack USSR in 1940 instead of taking Spain?



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/7/2016 4:45:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

I'm not sure what USSR is doing. They have following units in German border:

-CAV in East Poland.

-INF, INF div, AA gun and 2x AT gun in Rumanian border.

All planes and other land units are in Persia.


Are they trying to make Germany attack USSR in 1940 instead of taking Spain?

If the opportunity presents, our last game showed it might be worthwhile to take it.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/7/2016 5:21:04 PM)

And push hard beyond Urals. Let's see what happens in near future.



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/7/2016 5:31:34 PM)

Even without the weather, Italy couldn't reach Toulouse this impulse. Moving through ZoC.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/7/2016 5:44:32 PM)

Sorry, I was supposed to say this turn.



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/7/2016 6:09:13 PM)

Either way, the weather is probably going to put a stop to it. Italians couldn't move much without it either going OOS, disorganised or both.



Centuur -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/7/2016 8:16:23 PM)

The Italians still could move the MTN westwards and get another unit in the hex it came from, to maintain supply. That move alone might give the Italians the possibility to move further westwards next impulse (or turn), if the French don't do anything about it.

It's always best to have the enemy react on something you do.

Now, with France on the ropes, Germany should take into account the Soviet border. If the USSR is foolish enough not to pay attention to garrison values and Germany conquers Paris, forget about going into the Med. Go into the USSR immediately (DoW them the impulse after you've captured Paris if you've got that possibility)! A 1940 Barbarossa with Vichy declared is very, very powerfull, even if you haven't got a lot of troops to enter the Soviet Union in the surprise impulse.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 5:21:59 AM)

I agree with Centuur. The Italians need to keep moving, and 1940 Barb with Vichy declared is powerful.

Have the Soviets taken the Baltic States yet? They don't have the Finnish borderlands...and going deep into Persia.



Centuur -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 4:47:17 PM)

Any chance of a reasonable attack on Paris? If you can get odds of 2-1 (after modifications) or more, I would be tempted to try to take the city, even using the 1D10. That's to say: if you've got cheap loss takers available.



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 5:13:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

The Italians still could move the MTN westwards and get another unit in the hex it came from, to maintain supply. That move alone might give the Italians the possibility to move further westwards next impulse (or turn), if the French don't do anything about it.

It's always best to have the enemy react on something you do.

Now, with France on the ropes, Germany should take into account the Soviet border. If the USSR is foolish enough not to pay attention to garrison values and Germany conquers Paris, forget about going into the Med. Go into the USSR immediately (DoW them the impulse after you've captured Paris if you've got that possibility)! A 1940 Barbarossa with Vichy declared is very, very powerfull, even if you haven't got a lot of troops to enter the Soviet Union in the surprise impulse.


The Italians moved what they could while still remaining organised and in supply. Most other moves I tries resulted in disorganisation. This impulse, with the change in weather (and on the back of the last moves), the Italian Mech has been able to push forwards while maintaining supply and organisation.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 6:29:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Any chance of a reasonable attack on Paris? If you can get odds of 2-1 (after modifications) or more, I would be tempted to try to take the city, even using the 1D10. That's to say: if you've got cheap loss takers available.


I will check the situation later today. I have INF div and MIL near Paris, so I have cheap units there. Too bad ground strikes failed... Warsaw takes assault anyway.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 6:31:49 PM)

Let's say we take Paris now and decide to go for Barbarossa 1940. What do you guys think is it smart to take Greece in summer 1940 and align Yugoslavia by Italy, or wait until 1941 or leave them neutral?



Klydon -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 7:37:11 PM)

Tough call on Greece.

You have the Allies on their heels early this game and likely not expecting a 1940 Barbarossa (or at least the realization hasn't set in yet). The CW transport situation isn't good now with the Queens in the repair yard and if you manage to bag another, they are going to be really hurting on getting ground units around to the Med.

I almost think you look to get going on Russia and send picked troops down to deal with Greece as you can. The CW isn't going to be able to get any meaningful troops redeployed there anytime soon. The thing that is going to be bad about getting involved in Greece is the Luftwaffe sucking up transfer actions and other actions as they become involved in Greece and the Med, leaving the support of the troops in Russia quite lacking. Of course, the Red air force isn't exactly going to be much to write home about in a 40 Barbarrosa either.

While not a ideal situation for the main Axis war plan coming into the game, I think the way the situation is unfolding would come under the heading of "no plan survives contact with the enemy" and obviously a major rethink is needed on the Euro-Axis part given the strategic situation. The Axis have been handed an opportunity by good play and especially the long turns with good weather early in the game.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 8:13:53 PM)

Evening AllenK (and all who follow mighty Axis AAR),

I get following odds:

2,85:1 (30% def HQ support and -1 from factories) to Paris
2,67:1 to Warsaw

I will attack Warsaw, but how about Paris?

2:1 means 20% chance to take Paris and 3:1 means 30%. I feel it is too risky. If turn ends, I can take it next turns first impulse. Though now when I look for next turns reinforcements France is going to have FTR-3 with pilot and 4 corps. But no divisions for Paris.

I was going to attack GAR when I started to type this message, but now I feel more like trying to take Paris...



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 8:16:13 PM)

Aside from the chances to take, what do the Germans stand to lose and at what odds?



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 8:22:15 PM)

2:1 = 40% chance to lose 1 unit and 40% chance to lose 2 units

3:1 = 40% chance to lose 1 unit and 30% chance to lose 2 units

I get even 3:1 attack (-1 from factories and 30% def HQ support) if I don't involve MIL, then German loss takers are INF div and INF.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 8:24:44 PM)

If turn ends, Germany may suffer losses in air to air combat over Paris. There is 4 strength fighter in Paris, FTR-3 somewhere close and bomber in Vichy.



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 8:25:37 PM)

Okay, assume 2 units lost and Paris survives without losses. How does the picture look now?



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 8:28:53 PM)

I take it next turns first impulse. Then I can also involve Rundstedt with HQ support, Stuka and Ju88. But there might be some losses in air to air combat.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 9:24:08 PM)

Paris falls! USSR unit in Rumanian border are running east, three of them are still on Odessa. USSR has not taken Baltic countries yet.

I would say we go for Barbarossa 1940?

Germany need to clean CW units from France and take Warsaw, but there is only 1 unit left so it's not too hard now.



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/8/2016 9:27:08 PM)

Good stuff. I concur, '40 Barbarossa.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/9/2016 1:32:32 AM)

Way to go Mayhemizer!!! Congrats!

1940 Barb would be the best strategy now.

Concerning Greece...keep it an Italian project. A few specific German units would be useful...give Italy the BP's/resources they need to purchase the units they need. Coincide your time table for Greece with the entry of the needed Italian units.




Centuur -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/9/2016 7:46:44 PM)

Wait a minute here. Don't do something too fast. Make good calculations on German-USSR garrison ratio's (you need a pretty high number to break the pact). It is entirely possible that you won't get that number for a long time.

Now, if the USSR is stupid enough to ignore the border with Germany, break the pact immediately but ask yourself this: is it worthwhile to DoW them too, or is it better to wait, since you are not in a position to do them much harm. If the latter case arises, you might get the USSR to DoW you. And think of the headlines in US newspapers if that happens.

Personally, I believe that Germany only can get the ratio early next turn, since the USSR has land and air units in Persia which he now needs to move back ASAP. And those units have a lot of garrison points.

You don't want to get involved in an Sitzkrieg because you think you can break the pact but in reality don't have the possibility to do so until somewhere in 1941...




AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/9/2016 7:50:54 PM)

Mayhemizer, discussion needed on Italian production.

I say forget Greece for the time being. Why hand the Allies 10 CP's, the land units and a CA? That's a lot of BP's worth that will take a long time for the Greek resource to break even on. Also it would not give the Allies the potential US Entry chits. Keep USA neutral for as long as possible. Best time would be just as we DoW USA to prevent any nasty surprise impulses.

Let the Germans concentrate on destroying USSR units and getting to the oil fields.

I'm thinking of pulling Inf HQ and Inf out of Libya. Inf HQ for Garrison in France. Inf for garrison in Albania to prevent easy invasion of Albania and 4 corps being landed there to align Yugoslavia.

If we are going for Greece, I think Italians will need to build Marine. If not, then a pilot and save 4 BP's as half of the Synth Oil for next turn.

What do you think?



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/9/2016 8:05:39 PM)

You can retreat from Africa, no need to stay there when we go for Barbarossa 1940.

Send some INF to Albania. I would say Italy can build units to take Greece in summer 1941. I don't think Italy needs marine for that, but it can help. We can take Greece by having few Italian INF in Albania, invading by few (German/Italian) divisions to various ports in south, para dropping German PARA using Italian ATR. If Italy sends HQ to Bulgaria, Germany can give couple of fast moving INF's/MIL's. That way Germany is involved only with PARA, INF div and about 3 INF's/MIL's. Also Italy needs few bombers.

But first Italy needs to build all submarines and as many NAV's and fighters as possible. And some land units to garrison France [:)] You can build Synth plant first.

When Vichy is declared and CW units are pushed to the sea, can Italian land units take care of Bordeaux area and send submarines to Bordeaux?

About Barbarossa. I know Italy can't send too many units there because they have some work to do: hit convoys with submarines and fight with NAV's in Mediterranean, but can they send 2 fighters to protect HQ's and any extra bombers Italy possibly have? Germany will keep sending resources and BP's to help Italy.



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/9/2016 8:11:52 PM)

Agreed. After the Synth oil, priority to Subs, Navs, Fighters and pilots.



Centuur -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/10/2016 10:02:24 PM)

Beware of CW bombers bombing the factories at Lille, Paris or Brussels. You need FTR's in France to prevent that. Or you have to accept the loss of production points due to these bombings...



quiritus -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/10/2016 10:36:55 PM)

i don't agree on italian production if Barb 40 is on schedule: i think that is fighter the priority: german fighter and naval air on defense duty on med and France. All italian air force in urss: land with germany using the 4 air move to keep stuka close the front, air or combined with italy for air cover.



peskpesk -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/10/2016 10:55:03 PM)

Also if Barb 40 is on schedule, the Japanese might have a tough time to break the pact with the USSR - if the Russian don't get cought of guard - unless forces are withdrawn from mainland China.



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