RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (Full Version)

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Jagdtiger14 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/10/2016 11:27:52 PM)

The Soviets are off guard at the moment...they will have a tough time getting their forces together. I don't think they will be able to cover the Dnieper with any strength. They might make some heroic factory city stands here or there with cheap units (MIL and GAR), but for the most part I expect them to run and preserve their forces. Murmansk and Archangel are either gone or cut off at the least. Moscow could theoretically have some sort of defense. Caucasus mountains can be defended. The border with Japan will should be fairly open (but probably not...see below). If the pact can be broken, the Japs in theory can get Vlad and the resources/territory from Chita to the Pacific.

Putting a bunch of Italian units vs the French in the Alps worked, and I suspect (because Warspite is very resistant in our convos to seeing the light on that one) if the Japs put some of their re-inforcements into Manchuria the Soviets might keep too much there and make the German job much easier. I would build a bunch of land units with Japan...that alone should freak them out.

Don't forget the Persian oil...I suspect Persia will be empty at some point. The Japs should get their fleet ready for that.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 6:16:50 AM)

Axis won initiative. AlkenK, should we go first?

In Poland all German units are next to enemy, I can't break the pact untill next impulse (DoW will be done in M/A or M/J). If we start, I take Warsaw on first impulse and break the pact on second impulse.

In France and Belgium first impulse would help us destroy CW units before they run away.

If we have both first and last impulse, initiative will be 0 and both can reroll next time.

For Germany it is not mandatory to go first but of course it would make things easier.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 6:30:48 AM)

I think you go kill some CW units before they get away.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 4:30:22 PM)

Unbelievable Vichy!!! Japanese getting at Madagascar would be awesome! It looks like Vichy will have better production than normal, and it would be nice to get at some of that Vichy fleet when the time is right.



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 6:13:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

Axis won initiative. AlkenK, should we go first?

In Poland all German units are next to enemy, I can't break the pact untill next impulse (DoW will be done in M/A or M/J). If we start, I take Warsaw on first impulse and break the pact on second impulse.

In France and Belgium first impulse would help us destroy CW units before they run away.

If we have both first and last impulse, initiative will be 0 and both can reroll next time.

For Germany it is not mandatory to go first but of course it would make things easier.


Just to throw an idea onto the table. An ambitious plan.

Let Allies go first, to give us the initiative bonus for M/A 40.

See if CW tries to send the Trans under fleet and air protection into North Sea and load the two CW units in Antwerp. Next impulse, sortie everything into the North Sea and hope for favourable search results to sink Trans and kill CW units. Probably too ambitious as it relies on a good search roll but thoughts?



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 6:36:25 PM)

Not a bad idea. Point of info: Is the entire German fleet in Kiel? Assuming everything makes the 4 box. Also assuming the weather is terrible (storm/blizzard) since J/F is the worst weather turn. Also assuming no enemy cp's in North Sea. What is your percentage of finding something? You will also need enough surprise points to pick a target (3 per target).

Weigh that against:

Storm/Blizzard attack vs Antwerp.

The negative vs ground assault vs Antwerp is that if everything gets flipped it will be difficult to rail useful units to Poland on what normally is the shortest turn of the game.

The positive for naval action is that since you are not taking Gibraltar/Med strategy...then your fleet is more expendable.

I might be mistaken, but a 4+ mover TRS (Queens) can move into Antwerp and then back home without staying in the North Sea? Do the Germans have anything in the North Sea to intercept?...which might be close to impossible anyway with the expected terrible weather.




Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 6:43:15 PM)

German fleet is mostly disorganized or in Baltic Sea. There is no Axis units in North Sea.

In Antwerp CW has MOT and MIL. They can only save MIL using the Queens (if it is allowed to move like JT14 said).

Let Allies go first, even if MIL is saved there is MOT near Paris and MOT in Antwerp/North Sea.

The only thing I'm worried is can USSR put some units to German border and prevent German breaking the pact? But I think we can let Allies start to keep advantage in initiative.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 6:47:19 PM)

The thing is, can you chase after and catch the CW units that will run from you in France?...are they OOS? Do the CW have a regular (not Queens) 4 moving TRS available?

Concerning the USSR...they probably could delay you breaking the pact by doing that, but that would be playing into your hands since you will VERY soon be able to break it anyway...and those Soviet units will be destroyed there instead of near Moscow or Caucasus. If I were playing the USSR, I would NOT do that!




AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 6:57:26 PM)

I don't think the move into, load and back out of port function is enabled yet.

For ships in 4-box, 30% to find in Storm, 40% if CP's present. I don't think they'll have withdrawn the CP in the North Sea to keep the units in Antwerp in supply. Overall though it relies pretty much on close to a 1:10 split going the Axis way to give the surprise points to select targets.

I think artillery could still ground strike in the storm, which if it works (20% chance for each) would give disorganised and OOS units. Defence of 4 as one is an elite.

Other option would be to have a go on the land route this impulse, then the naval route in impulse 3 if necessary.



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 7:00:15 PM)

I'm happy to go second as it will also force CW to spread the escorts out more thinly to cover the convoys as he won't know where the Italian subs will go.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 7:01:40 PM)

OK, you can tell Allies that they can go first.



Centuur -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 8:20:09 PM)

Good decision to let the Allies go first. There is no rush and it's important to keep the Axis initiative as high as possible.

Good CW play at this stage, demands that they don't risk their TRS. That automatically means that they should only use the Queens to evacuate units out of Antwerp (and the feature is coded and operational). However: why not stay in that port? The use of the Home Fleet BB's for shore bombardment means that they are in a good defensive position. A German attack on Antwerp during winter is probably going to result in German losses. That's what the CW boots on the floor are for anyway. Throw those soldiers in the Axis path and see if you can delay things, would be my solution for this problem. Sure, it means the loss of build points, but there doesn't seem a lot the Axis are doing against the CW at this stage anyway. It is a question of what losses you can and what losses you can't have.
The loss of the MOT and the MIL in Antwerp is a nuisance, but the loss of TRS is a far greater problem. I wouldn't fall into that trap.

I would gladly exchange CW BB's for German ones on a 1.5 - 1 base as the CW, but I would not allow any Axis nation a shot at my precious TRS at this stage.

Let's see if your opponents are of the same opinion.




AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/11/2016 8:26:48 PM)

Thanks Centuur.

Handy to know the port pick up function is now working.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/12/2016 4:26:57 AM)

What Centuur writes is true.

Assuming they do as Centuur argues: you will have to get the CW out of there at some point anyway regardless...and you will have to keep units around there to keep them from roaming around. So when do you destroy them?...when the weather gets better (hopefully) in M/A'40? Do you keep the necessary strength to defeat them there as well? Air and/or arty for GS? All of this is wasting your time, and time is the most valuable asset in WiF. I would consider it a CW victory if by having them there it keeps valuable units tied up in Belgium while they could be fighting the Soviets.

You have the units to deal with them there now.

I would be very active and risky with the German fleet now (pre-Barb)...trying to put CW units in France/Belgium OOS, etc...



peskpesk -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/13/2016 9:15:38 AM)

I am puzzled by the Axis builds.

GE: No Armor
JP: No CV
IT: No Nav

There have been talks about a Barbarossa. GE neesds Armor. IT needs Nav+ FTR to keep CW at bay. JP will be cruhed without navy to fend of the US.



AllenK -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/13/2016 9:43:55 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: peskpesk

I am puzzled by the Axis builds.

GE: No Armor
JP: No CVtend
IT: No Nav

There have been talks about a Barbarossa. GE needs Armor. IT needs Nav+ FTR to keep CW at bay. JP will be cruhed without navy to fend of the US.


In Japan and Italy's case the decision was to build the Synth Oils since Navs and CV's don't tend to do that well without it. Higher than anticipated land losses for Japan has meant some switching from what was planned to replace them.

Edit: Italy did build a pilot to put in the Nav it built in the first turn.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/13/2016 10:03:50 AM)

Germany needs tanks, but they also need units to replace losses. They will build ARM, but not just this impulse.



Klydon -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/13/2016 1:34:07 PM)

A side benefit of no armor builds from the Germans will be that it may keep the Allies guessing a bit as to the next strategic direction the Germans may take. It is slim, but who knows. [:D]



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/13/2016 3:37:21 PM)

I keep my options open. I can still go to Spain if it looks like Germany can't break the pact.



Centuur -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/13/2016 6:34:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

I keep my options open. I can still go to Spain if it looks like Germany can't break the pact.


True. And for a Barbarossa 1940 you are better of by building MTN, MIL, GAR first if you are not convinced you can break the pact, before building ARM. However, you can't simply wait to make this decision. You have to choose next impulse, since going for Barbarossa needs the transfer of the main part of the German army in France to the USSR.

Chances are that Germany can break the pact this turn, but are not able to break it if the Soviet Union gets the air units together with two ARM railed back out of Persia into Eastern Poland next turn...



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/14/2016 9:49:32 AM)

The Queens and TRANS in North Sea. I guess we have to sink them?



AlbertN -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/14/2016 11:53:05 AM)

Has Japan thought to strip CVs of planes and use the pilots to arm up more bombers (even NAV2 have 2-3 tactical factors which can help a great deal vs the Chinese; and you'll need them anyway later on in the pacific).
You won't need the CVP for a long while anyhow unless China makes the mistake to come too close to the coasts.



Centuur -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/14/2016 2:48:44 PM)

The Allies just made a big mistake.

I suggest a hit and run attack by the German fleet, assisted by the Flying boat, on the CW TRS, during a combined action, which Germany can also use to start moving the Luftwaffe to the east and to capture Warsaw.

By the way: what's the exact situation in the Northwestern USSR (especially Karelia and Leningrad are important to inspect).

The impulse after that: start the war with the USSR, since the Soviets are still totally out of position.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/14/2016 3:53:37 PM)

I cant believe how weak the protection for those TRS looks! I would bring the whole kitchen sink.

In Karelia I think there was a lonely HQ...a remnant of their idea to demand the border...not sure if its been railed away this impulse.

Can you break the pact this impulse?



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/14/2016 9:04:57 PM)

Here is the situation:

German has only 1 organized ship in Kiel. Axis are going to sends FTR, NAV and Italian ATR to North Sea. MOT and MIL are still on those transporters.

Germany can't break pact this impulse, there is one INF in Warsaw and they all are in ZoC.

Germany will align Hungary to get 3 units to USSR border.

USSR has GAR in Murmansk, INF + INF HQ 6 hexes south of Murmansk and INF in Leningrad. 3 units (one of them is disorganized) in eastern Poland. INF and LND in Bessarabia, 3 hexes from Bulgarian border but it is not common border so it does not count?

Germany gets only 7:1 assault in Warsaw, that gives 30% chance to flip all units. I don't get better odds next impulse either. I think I will rail ARM and MTN (high value in garrison) to Poland 4-5 hexes away from border (closer is not possible) and reorganize them using HQ if Warsaw assault goes well. Poland has CAV in coastal city, that keep rest of German units in ZoC and 7:1 is best attack to that city too (assuming I take units away from Warsaw attack). If Warsaw attack fails, Germany can't break pact and USSR sends lots of troops to border I can always continue to Spain (with US entry cost if Vichy is collapsed).

Breaking pact does not look easy, specially if USSR sends bombers to German border. If they do that and Germany can break pact, there is no land units to protect planes and most of them can maybe overrun.

USSR defensive markers are worth of 6 points, German offensive markers are worth of 3 points (Oh yes, I forgot to move marker worth of 3 points from defense to offence).

[image]local://upfiles/39586/F12153B3178C4DF0957CBF146E7532EB.jpg[/image]



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/14/2016 9:30:11 PM)

At the moment my plans for this impulse are:

Germany takes land action.

German FTR flies to North Sea box 2 (Italy takes naval or combined, brings ATR to box 2 and initiates combat) and German NAV intercepts to box 2.

Germany rails MTN from Rouen and ARM from Paris to Krakow. GAR from Aachen to Denmark Frederikshavn.

I do land moves and try to take Warsaw with 7:1 assault. If that goes well, I can reorganize MTN and ARM. Next impulse I move all possible units inside 3 hexes from USSR border.

If I counted right, my maximum garrison value after Axis impulse 2 is 24 (can't break pact unless USSR retreats). It looks like German can't break pact this turn... I need to rail all MTN/SS/ARM units to Poland and try to do it next turn.

AllenK, what do you think? Should we try to break pact or continue to Spain?

And what if USSR demands Finnish Borderlands? It would cost lots of US entry chits if I deny it, but they would get more garrison value compared to Germany. I still feel it would be a good idea to deny it, USSR can't win Finland with so few units even if they send all their bombers there. Actually I can block them so that they can't enter Finland and I can force peace. I guess they are not going to demand anything.

[image]local://upfiles/39586/AD26099C25E8465896DD83E4D74F0810.jpg[/image]



Centuur -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/14/2016 10:09:46 PM)

If they demand the borderlands and you deny the claim, you can't decide to go into Spain anymore, if they manage to get a unit into Finland itself. So if the Soviets claim them, let them have it.

At this moment, you need 21 garrison points. I would suggest to look into rebasing air units into the border area too, since those also count towards the garrison count.

And yes, the air units in Bessarabia three hexes from Bulgaria count. This explains the 4 point the Soviets have, since no other units except a GAR are on the common border.

You can move the Bulgarians to the northeast, to make them count too. But with the Hungarians included and the units you rail towards the front, you need 16 points on your side. That's a lot. You need to be sure you get those points there after killing the Poles, before sending the MTN and ARM into Poland. If not: Spain is next, except if you are sure (and I mean 100% sure) at this stage that you can break the pact next turn.

The most dangerous thing which can happen to Germany now, is that you think you can break the pact next turn, and it turns out not to be the case. Than you are heading towards a Sitzkrieg in 1940 and that means the loss of the game...



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/15/2016 5:30:44 AM)

Just throwing a crazy idea out there...and it coincides with getting the CW out of Bordoux/Bayonne...why not go after both Spain AND breaking the pact. Don't forget you have the Italians too.

If you collapse Vichey, I don't need to remind you to have a unit (Italian) that can over-run the fleet.

I highly doubt the USSR will claim the Finnish borderlands. If they do, make them fight...that will give you more units to break the pact, plus they are not ready for that war anyway.

I'm not clear Centuur about what you are writing about in your first sentence above?




Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/15/2016 7:22:17 AM)

In that mentioned 24 garrison points I counted Hungarian units and all planes I can send to Poland in two impulses.



Mayhemizer_slith -> RE: 4 player E-mail: Axis Only AAR (5/15/2016 8:56:25 AM)

I think safe option is to do almost as I planned above (send MTN/ARM/SS) to Poland and most of the planes. I keep one Ftr in France to protect factories, stuka and one Ftr moves south in France to help attack vs ARM HQ. All INF/MIL moves towards CW and Spain. Let's see if Germany can break pact. If not, we take Spain and Gibraltar as planned.

Italy need NAV in West Med to intercept escaping ships if we decide to collapse Vichy. If we go to Spain I suggest only Germany moves to Spain and Italy keeps garrison units in France.



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