RE: OT: Corona virus

RE: OT: Corona virus (Full Version)

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Kull -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 5:48:42 PM)
quote: The FDA approved the test that will be run by Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche's automated testing machines. The machines are already in 100 American laboratories. Roche's diagnostic machine will be able to run up to 4,000 tests per day and will give doctors the result in less than four hours. Excerpting the quote from my earlier post, let's have fun with numbers!!! The new Covid-19 test can be run (potentially) 4000 times a day on 100 different lab machines, which works out to some pretty impressive totals. For example, South Korea has performed 249,000 tests as of today, but in the US, the new Roche test could exceed that in a single day: 4000 x 100 = 400,000) Of course that's ludicrously optimistic - you'd need to have 400,000 samples in those labs first, and every sample has to be physically taken from a single individual. Plus, are those machines doing nothing else but Covid-19 testing? Of course not, there must be all sorts of tests going on every day, or the 100 machines wouldn't already exist. But just for grins, lets imagine that you COULD run all 100 at max output for as long as needed. How long WOULD it take to test the entire US population? 825 days That sounds ridiculous, obviously, but when you hear people talking about "half the population" coming down with this thing, it should be obvious that testing every symptomatic individual is not going to be feasible if/when we start seeing really large numbers. "Flattening the curve" is overly simplistic. It's not just breathing machines or hospital beds - the current patient-to-doctor methodology underlying our medical system is not capable of processing Covid-19 on a per-person basis. The vast majority of people who get this or think they might have it will just have deal with it themselves. Like the flu or the common cold. And think about that for a moment. Both of those have almost exactly the same symptoms as Covid-19, so people with those illnesses will be pouring into the same medical system, looking for Covid tests and more. If this isn't planned for, it's going to be a real trainwreck.

durnedwolf -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:12:12 PM)
I live in a rural community along the foothills of the Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountain Range - a little town on Highway 395 called Bishop. No "reported" cases of the virus. In Inyo and Mono counties, I don't think anyone has shown symptoms that would require testing. While I was getting gas today I saw a lady using a towelette to fill her car. I had rotator cuff surgery in December. I was at Physical Therapy today and one of the techs was wearing a face mask and gloves. Her job, apparently, was to wipe off all the equipment. My union is canceling all training sessions. Sporting events are being canceled all over. Heck - the annual local fishing tournament that was s'posed to take place 2morrow has been canceled. Yesterday on CNN they were interviewing some guy that had the virus. He had come into the local hospital a few days ago. They asked if he'd been out of the country and when he said no they sent him home - thinking probably just got the flu. He came back 3 days later and was really-really messed up. I guess he'd been in the hospital for a few days and was just then starting to turn the corner towards a full recovery. He talked about going to church the Sunday b4 and singing in the choir. He said that now several people in the choir were coming down with the virus. I think what pulled at me was the look in his eyes 'cause he was thinking they were sick on account of him. I work at a community college. We are making plans to continue classes in an on-line environment ala Zoom. No cases reported in Kern, Tulare, Inyo, or Mono Counties yet. Hand sanitizer stations are all over the place. I saw them mounted at the local ARCO gas station. My wife works in the hotel industry. I consider her job and mine as somewhat high-risk positions for coming in contact with the bug. I remember, many-many moons ago, practicing bio and chemical hazard decon back in my military days. Cut off/remove clothing, and then shower/scrub and test. The last thing that came off was the gas mask. New clothes and then form back up with my unit. So I'm into the ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. I had a talk with my wife. Any running around we need to do now we do before or after work. When my wife and I come home we go to the bathroom, remove our clothes, take a shower, and put on our 'jammies. Our clothes go into the washing machine. My wife thinks I'm over-reacting but she's got rheumatoid arthritis and is on drugs that reduce her immune system. And I'm not playing around on this and in truth, with all of the different information and rumors going on, she's kinda scared. Me too. I saw what that dude had on CNN and I don't want any part of that. My WAG is that, since I'm a pretty healthy guy and only 57, I'd drop into that 80% low symptoms\effects side of the equation. I'm not so sure about my wife falling into that 80%, and when it comes down to me losing her, I'm fine if I'm actually over-reacting.

alanschu -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:17:34 PM)
quote: Ha! Read my entire post. Go **** yourself quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Man, Alanshu, your words were uncalled for and unkind. Jeff has a seven-year-old son whose immunity is compromised; so he's unusually vulnerable. I hope you'll apologize. I totally did miss that. I'm sorry JeffK.

Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:20:38 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: USSAmerica Despite occasional political opinions flaring up here and there, this thread has been a great source of detailed and reasonable discussion and information. I hope it continues in that tone and usefulness. [8D] It's difficult to maintain decorum, because this is the internet. In real life, people of differing opinions sit down and (mostly) respectfully discuss things without resorting to name calling and open contempt for the viewpoints of others. That's the environment I'm accustomed to and what I prefer. In here, unfortunately, several members repeatedly show contempt for others. Sometimes it's outright, sometimes it's a bit more veiled, as in "you shouldn't stick your head in the sand" comments that imply that those who are looking at the data in different ways are not entitled to respect. Chickenboy is probably the most qualified person to comment in this community, yet some are casting aspersions at him, either personally or calling into question his judgment. Those acting in this way don't see it. They've helped make the environment so toxic that Chickenboy is discouraged from participating.

RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:22:38 PM)
I read where some of the drugs that they were giving for the Corona virus were for rheumatiod arthritis since the over active immune system causes problems. Let me try to find a link . . . quote: Chinese government has on Wednesday approved the use of Arthritis drug for Coronavirus treatment. The Socialists state said inspite its prescription of Swiss drugmaker Roche’s <ROG.S> anti-inflammation drug Actemra for patients who develop severe complications from the coronavirus, it still hunts for new ways to combat the deadly virus. Disclosing this, the Physiciansweekly.com opined that “China is hoping that some older drugs could stop severe cytokine release syndrome (CRS), or cytokine storms, an overreaction of the immune system which is considered a major factor behind catastrophic organ failure and death in some coronavirus patients. https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/03/breaking-china-endorses-arthritis-drug-for-coronavirus-treatment/ quote: Since Actemra’s approval a decade ago, it has become a go-to drug against other inflammatory conditions, including cytokine storms in cancer patients receiving cell therapies from Novartis <NOVN.S> and Gilead Sciences <GILD.O>. In 2012 it helped save the life of a young U.S. girl, the first child to be treated for leukaemia with Novatis’ Kymriah, from a post-treatment rush of IL-6. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/china-approves-use-of/ quote: Kindly Share This Story Adebayo Folorunsho-Francis An anti-inflammation drug, Actemra (tocilizumab), manufactured by the Swiss pharmaceutical company, Roche, has been approved by the Chinese government for the treatment of patients who are developing severe complications from coronavirus. Actemra is indicated for the treatment of adult patients with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis who have had an inadequate response to one or more Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs. Roche was quoted as saying that a third party has initiated the trial independently to explore the efficacy and safety of the drug in coronavirus patients with cytokine release syndrome (CRS). https://punchng.com/china-approves-arthritis-drug-for-coronavirus-treatment/ edited for: I think that I read about that young girl. The only reason why the drug was used on her was because one of the doctors had a family member using the drug. She is now a healthy teenager.

RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:24:52 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel quote: ORIGINAL: USSAmerica Despite occasional political opinions flaring up here and there, this thread has been a great source of detailed and reasonable discussion and information. I hope it continues in that tone and usefulness. [8D] It's difficult to maintain decorum, because this is the internet. In real life, people of differing opinions sit down and (mostly) respectfully discuss things without resorting to name calling and open contempt for the viewpoints of others. That's the environment I'm accustomed to and what I prefer. In here, unfortunately, several members repeatedly show contempt for others. Sometimes it's outright, sometimes it's a bit more veiled, as in "you shouldn't stick your head in the sand" comments that imply that those who are looking at the data in different ways are not entitled to respect. Chickenboy is probably the most qualified person to comment in this community, yet some are casting aspersions at him, either personally or calling into question his judgment. Those acting in this way don't see it. They've helped make the environment so toxic that Chickenboy is discouraged from participating. Thank you for posting that.

Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:34:04 PM)
I think Obvert mentioned that his school has closed now, apparently in the last day or two? He's in England, of course. In the USA, many school systems have already closed. We've postponed or cancelled major events. We've limited travel. In some ways, the US has responded more quickly than European countries because we've had the benefit of seeing what they're experiencing and how they're dealing with it. Europe is about three weeks into this; we're about ten days into hit. We have a federal system of government. Localities, states, and some federal departments have responded more quickly than others. Overall, the ramp-up in the past two days has been marked. That's good. In Georgia, the governor authorized each school system to respond as it felt appropriate, encouraging them to consider closing. Many systems in and near affected areas are already closed. Some in more rural and isolated regions have the latitude to try to work around upcoming spring breaks, to smooth out the process. This might not work perfectly, but across the state school superintendents seem to appreciate the flexibility to handle it locally. Most will likely err on the side of acting quickly to minimize the possibility of making the wrong call.

MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:36:40 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth Ah, finally the”deep state” gets mentioned. You think the Alex Jones crowd would be more concerned with his drunk driving. A world wide pandemic being dismissed as “deep state” misinformation. Are you saying I'am "the Alex Jones crowd"? You do not know enough about me to say anything other than "War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition crowd". If you look at the articles I've posted they cover a wide range, and some of my post in this thread have been humorous. I believe in all the recon one can get on a subject and to never put anything in concrete. Just because Napoleon abandoned the Pratzen Heights is no reason to rush forward and take it. I have 99 problems and the Coronavirus ain't one. It is a concern.

witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:37:32 PM)
Kull, I think "half the population" was exposed to the disease, not coming down with it. Similarly for Germany's 70% figure. Edit: But now I see a news item about possibly "150 million infected" in US.

USSAmerica -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:39:58 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel quote: ORIGINAL: USSAmerica Despite occasional political opinions flaring up here and there, this thread has been a great source of detailed and reasonable discussion and information. I hope it continues in that tone and usefulness. [8D] It's difficult to maintain decorum, because this is the internet. In real life, people of differing opinions sit down and (mostly) respectfully discuss things without resorting to name calling and open contempt for the viewpoints of others. That's the environment I'm accustomed to and what I prefer. In here, unfortunately, several members repeatedly show contempt for others. Sometimes it's outright, sometimes it's a bit more veiled, as in "you shouldn't stick your head in the sand" comments that imply that those who are looking at the data in different ways are not entitled to respect. Chickenboy is probably the most qualified person to comment in this community, yet some are casting aspersions at him, either personally or calling into question his judgment. Those acting in this way don't see it. They've helped make the environment so toxic that Chickenboy is discouraged from participating. I cast aspersions at Chickenboy personally, because I know him personally. [:D] I do NOT call into question his judgement relating to his professional training and always look forward to reading his take on matters such as this discussion topic.

mind_messing -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:40:42 PM)
quote: It's difficult to maintain decorum, because this is the internet. In real life, people of differing opinions sit down and (mostly) respectfully discuss things without resorting to name calling and open contempt for the viewpoints of others. That's the environment I'm accustomed to and what I prefer. In here, unfortunately, several members repeatedly show contempt for others. Going for the "holier than thou" gimmick rather than actually engaging with the debate got old a couple of years ago. quote: Sometimes it's outright, sometimes it's a bit more veiled, as in "you shouldn't stick your head in the sand" comments that imply that those who are looking at the data in different ways are not entitled to respect. This thread is actually a fairly good example of that behaviour, in my view. Post 617 - is that assertion borne out by the data? quote: Chickenboy is probably the most qualified person to comment in this community, yet some are casting aspersions at him, either personally or calling into question his judgment. Agreed that Chickenboy is likely most qualified person to comment, but he's a diagnostician. Like all public health issues, COVID is truly a multi-disciplinary issue.

alanschu -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:41:30 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Kull I posted this exact information earlier. It's right at the top of page 20 along with a quote and a link to a pretty detailed story. Kind of disappointing that apparently some aren't reading these things. Rather than just sticking a link out there, I usually include interesting graphics and "to-the-point" quotes. A fair amount of effort goes into the research, including a HUGE amount of time looking for sources that don't have an agenda. (Ironically, that one link was a violation of my own policy, but the story is really important and it was the only source I could find) As someone who very clearly ****ed up by not reading a post properly, sometimes while sneaking a peak at work or other places it happens. I wouldn't read it too personally. For some reason the forum software was telling me today that the first unread post in this thread was from February 28th. I have a discord chat channel with friends and it moves fast enough that stuff gets missed and people post the same info because it got missed.

witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:46:01 PM)
Rough calculations based on these numbers, Total cases today so far have increased about 6.8%, active cases almost 15%. [image]local://upfiles/14248/CBE60A73382D4E48835F79E1EBF4CC50.jpg[/image]

witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:46:40 PM)
The heading tally. [image]local://upfiles/14248/7B22FDE9461B40CDBF0078634B10A735.jpg[/image]

witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:47:14 PM)
The top countries (and heading for the totals column two posts above). [image]local://upfiles/14248/57752EABC6E94E78B0662B77DF447AB3.jpg[/image]

Zorch -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:47:43 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: USSAmerica quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel quote: ORIGINAL: USSAmerica Despite occasional political opinions flaring up here and there, this thread has been a great source of detailed and reasonable discussion and information. I hope it continues in that tone and usefulness. [8D] It's difficult to maintain decorum, because this is the internet. In real life, people of differing opinions sit down and (mostly) respectfully discuss things without resorting to name calling and open contempt for the viewpoints of others. That's the environment I'm accustomed to and what I prefer. In here, unfortunately, several members repeatedly show contempt for others. Sometimes it's outright, sometimes it's a bit more veiled, as in "you shouldn't stick your head in the sand" comments that imply that those who are looking at the data in different ways are not entitled to respect. Chickenboy is probably the most qualified person to comment in this community, yet some are casting aspersions at him, either personally or calling into question his judgment. Those acting in this way don't see it. They've helped make the environment so toxic that Chickenboy is discouraged from participating. I cast aspersions at Chickenboy personally, because I know him personally. [:D] I do NOT call into question his judgement relating to his professional training and always look forward to reading his take on matters such as this discussion topic. +1 Some people interpret everything politically. +1 Chickenboy as a sage voice of counsel. My local supermarket is sold out of OJ! Milk and toilet paper are bad enough, but I can't function with 2 glasses of OJ every morning.

Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:50:14 PM)
USSAmerica, I wasn't referring to you. You're always polite. [:)]

RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:51:11 PM)
I just saw this about the United States: quote: Keep an eye on coronavirus, but remember the flu There have been at least 22 million flu cases so far this season nationwide, with 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 flu deaths. https://www.myhealth.va.gov/mhv-portal-web/ss20200211-coronavirus VA insists it can handle coronavirus pandemic quote: As of Friday morning, at least 16 patients connected to 10 different VA medical centers nationwide have tested positive for the coronavirus or are awaiting confirmation but presumed to be infected. . . . Nationwide, more than 1,200 individuals in 42 states have been infected, and at least 36 have died. Numerous public school systems and universities have closed down for the next few weeks, and large conferences, professional sports and entertainment events have been cancelled. . . . On Tuesday, department officials announced that all VA nursing homes and spinal cord injury and disorder centers will have a “no visitor” rule in an effort to limit the virus spread. All other VA medical centers have been screening visitors for the last few weeks for signs of illness, and barring some individuals from medical campuses. https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/03/13/va-insists-it-can-handle-coronavirus-pandemic/ quote: All VA medical facilities began screening visitors this month for the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, and many have started limiting the number of visitors or barring children under age 18, and in some cases, 16, from medical campuses. But on Tuesday, the department announced that its nursing homes, also called community living centers, and 24 spinal cord injury and disorder centers will have a “no visitor” rule starting immediately and lasting “until further notice.” The facilities house or care for more than 65,000 veterans. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/03/10/va-locks-down-nursing-homes-to-prevent-covid-19-infections-department-tracking-six-cases/ The immediate family members of dying veterans are allowed to visit.

alanschu -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:51:31 PM)
I'm not sure what happened the previous day (I noticed the site itself was having issues) but the trend seems to be accelerating (which is going to be a mix of more diligent testing in addition to the spread itself). I work in software development so my company opted to do the work from home stuff until April at which point they'll reevaluate. My studio itself is not particularly high risk at this time, but I know other studios around the world were heavily at risk (the Shanghai one has been closed for a while now).

USSAmerica -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:53:34 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel USSAmerica, I wasn't referring to you. You're always polite. [:)] I know Dan. I just couldn't pass up the opening to take a dig at CB. [:D]

Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:54:14 PM)
Witpqs, I was working on the same chart while you posted it. :) These are some of my thoughts: [image]local://upfiles/8143/FC40E63AA7684293BDD77987E2632879.jpg[/image]

RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 6:55:00 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Zorch quote: ORIGINAL: USSAmerica quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel quote: ORIGINAL: USSAmerica Despite occasional political opinions flaring up here and there, this thread has been a great source of detailed and reasonable discussion and information. I hope it continues in that tone and usefulness. [8D] It's difficult to maintain decorum, because this is the internet. In real life, people of differing opinions sit down and (mostly) respectfully discuss things without resorting to name calling and open contempt for the viewpoints of others. That's the environment I'm accustomed to and what I prefer. In here, unfortunately, several members repeatedly show contempt for others. Sometimes it's outright, sometimes it's a bit more veiled, as in "you shouldn't stick your head in the sand" comments that imply that those who are looking at the data in different ways are not entitled to respect. Chickenboy is probably the most qualified person to comment in this community, yet some are casting aspersions at him, either personally or calling into question his judgment. Those acting in this way don't see it. They've helped make the environment so toxic that Chickenboy is discouraged from participating. I cast aspersions at Chickenboy personally, because I know him personally. [:D] I do NOT call into question his judgement relating to his professional training and always look forward to reading his take on matters such as this discussion topic. +1 Some people interpret everything politically. +1 Chickenboy as a sage voice of counsel. My local supermarket is sold out of OJ! Milk and toilet paper are bad enough, but I can't function with 2 glasses of OJ every morning. Do you dilute the OJ with vodka or rum? The last OJ that I was given, I gave away since I have no vodka or rum.

witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 7:01:29 PM)
I realize that where I wrote "15% increase in active cases" that number is off. I did subtract new deaths, but I didn't have a figure for new recovered cases. I doubt the number is off by very much.

durnedwolf -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 7:02:32 PM)
Yup - toilet paper is getting to be a prized commodity. [image]local://upfiles/16754/D4F00C344A6F4EA992B6384DE98BB6CE.jpg[/image]

witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 7:04:53 PM)
Dan, some numbers from France must have just come in. [image]local://upfiles/14248/F2F1A86B8D51459EB8286BE4F90B669D.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 7:11:37 PM)
If memory serves, heart-of-Europe countries like Italy, France, Germany, and Spain began dealing with this about three weeks ago. If that's true, those countries should be about a week to ten days ahead of us on the exponential curve, so I'd expect the curve to begin to flatten there about a week or ten days before they begin to flatten here.

Spikeosx -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 7:11:40 PM)
A lot of misinformation on this forum, but some has been good. edit: not a reply to witqps, I must have hit wrong key.

MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 7:11:51 PM)
TAR and FEATHERS!!! Couple Makes More Than $100,000 Reselling Lysol Wipes Amid Coronavirus Fears: “We’re Hustlers” https://balleralert.com/profiles/blogs/couple-makes-more-than-100k-reselling-lysol-wipes-amid-coronavirus/ "A Vancouver couple is capitalizing on the growing hysteria surrounding the spread of coronavirus.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ According to The Star, Manny Ranga and his wife Violeta Perez parked their Ford F-150 outside of a Costco near downtown Vancouver this week with stacks upon stacks of “Lysol disinfecting wipes.” The couple claimed they’ve made over $100,000 so far with their “business model.” They hit up each Costco retailer within the area, and racked up on as many Lysol wipes and liquid cleaners they could get their hands on, spending thousands of dollars at a time and then reselling them on Amazon under their vendor name “Violeta & Sons Buying and Selling, Ltd.” Ranga revealed that one $20 six-pack of wipes could fetch 4 times as much online. The couple stocked their valued wipes in a storage area on their property, and in turn, resold them for $89."

alanschu -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 7:34:56 PM)
It was really surreal seeing pictures of them legit hauling full pallets of the stuff in the Costco parking lot. I'm surprised it was allowed to be honest.

Lokasenna -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/13/2020 7:41:12 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel I started this thread to get insight from the thoughtful members of the community. People like Chiekenboy, who has a particular expertise in this area. But good men couldn't keep themselves under control and became incredibly offensive. I'm out of here. The term "deep state" is itself incredibly offensive and pejorative. I wish you would've scrubbed it from the headline at minimum.

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