RE: T61 (Full Version)

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HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 2:12:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tyronec

quote:

Did you get an unlucky route or retreat of the German infantry?

corbon is correct, they are all still there. Just the strange retreat paths.
Still working on this turn, taking me longer than usual !


Thank you. I'm looking at this on a phone since my Laptop died :-( I have found that the retreat pathing is more detrimental to the Germans in 12.x.



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 2:19:17 PM)

Only a matter of time now with this PZ cutting off the supply. Should be a very nice catch of units coming up. Very nice Tyronnec :-) [&o][&o][&o]

[image]local://upfiles/53556/6D983BBDD01C4C3DADB20BA8FD21AD19.jpg[/image]



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 2:31:01 PM)


What is the number of units that you have cut off down South?



tyronec -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 2:42:32 PM)

I think there were about 55 Divisions and 5 Corps at one time, though some of them have already gone.
Several of the units that were retreating through the mountains for a few turns were shattering or surrendering, and there have been a couple of pockets eliminated already.



joelmar -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 4:08:01 PM)

Very nice. I didn't think you would cut through his big CV stacks south of Makha so easily, so I have the answer to my doubts and I must gracefully admit I was wrong in thinking you should bring back pz in center.

That said, if I compare to 2x3+ game in which we had a very similar situation on turn 50, but in which we used all 4 panzer armies in center, the fact is now on turn 59, we are well in advance in center, and we will also get the Georgian valleys for sure before turn 70 (but probably not Baku). So that makes me wonder how much of that is due to that missing pz army in center? And if it is so, are the 3 VP for Baku worth it? Will the big defeat in Caucasus and all those Soviet units lost give you enough edge to catch up? Interesting stuff from my point of view.

Also I wonder if Getting Baku should get the Germans more VP? Anyway, I think that taking Baku is a cool achievement in itself and is worth some sacrifices.




Telemecus -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 5:20:11 PM)

The interesting thing will be now or soon all the panzer armies can be brought up to the Volga anyway. So not sparing the troops to make a very hard defence of the corridor along the Caspian is just going to mean more German units in the centre anyway.



tyronec -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 6:55:19 PM)

quote:

So that makes me wonder how much of that is due to that missing pz army in center?

In this game a definite YES.
The benefit of attacking towards Baku is that there is no escape for the defenders, Soviets have to decide how much to commit to the Caucasus and then if Baku is taken all those units are lost. Axis have the advantage of the central position, they can feint towards Baku and then continue or switch them back to the center.

Also if Baku is taken the whole area South of Stalingrad is a dead zone for Soviet supplies and is not going to need much of a garrison. There is no port supply unless isolated so keep that rail line cut East of Stalingrad and the Soviets can do nothing further south. That has got to help if you are coming under pressure in 42 or 43. Presumably if you can hang onto Rostov into '44 that is an going to help with surviving till the bitter end. Of course am speculating here, never having played past mid '42.



joelmar -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 7:12:24 PM)

Soviet defensive strategy was far from optimal in this game, you could get those results and it's definitely very good. War is about making the best of your opponent error, and that is exactly what you did.

Also, from what you say, I get that you play Bitter end. We are going for victory conditions, which might change a little the relative importance and choices of the objectives. 3 VP for Baku is probably not good enough to put an entire pz army down that hole for a few months. But I agree having Baku and the Georgian valleys in a game going '43 and beyond is probably a bigger asset than anything you might get in center. That's even without counting the large number of Soviet troops that will die there.



tyronec -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 8:17:34 PM)

We are not playing Bitter End, just a reference to playing through to '45. When I looked at the game after the Blizzard I didn't think there was any prospect of getting a VP win in '42, if at all. Even if Axis are doing well the rail supply modifier looks to make it too difficult in '42 but maybe possible in '43 if you can keep the Soviet army down to size. Looking forward to seeing what happens in the 2x3.



chaos45 -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 8:39:13 PM)

Short of a massive mistake on your part the game is super done now, great job. That panzer army will still be tied up for awhile in mop up operations in the south, but end result is it will allow to expand or at the least defend your far forward position for far longer.

Also historically speaking.....the game should be over as its unlikely the soviets could have continued to resist with how much you have taken esp once you add Baku.



joelmar -> RE: T61 (6/17/2020 9:42:31 PM)

quote:


ORIGINAL: tyronec
When I looked at the game after the Blizzard I didn't think there was any prospect of getting a VP win in '42, if at all. Even if Axis are doing well the rail supply modifier looks to make it too difficult in '42 but maybe possible in '43 if you can keep the Soviet army down to size. Looking forward to seeing what happens in the 2x3.


I thought it might be possible for you in 1942. But you may be right. The losses in Caucasus will hurt your opponent's OOB big time, it will release a lot of your troops as Tele said, so he won't be able to do much during winter, then a last big push in 1943 to get to the last objectives might do the trick.

In 2x3, we have a good inside chance to get to the victory conditions as most needed VPs are within reach, but it might be tight. Supplying has indeed been a little more difficult since we switched to 1.12. But it's also true for our opponents from what they told us. We'll see.

quote:

ORIGINAL: chaos45
Also historically speaking.....the game should be over as its unlikely the soviets could have continued to resist with how much you have taken esp once you add Baku.


+1



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: T38 (6/17/2020 10:37:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain


quote:

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Balance of power is all Germany now until the end of 1942.



True on this for sure. When you have someone on the ropes you don't stop hitting until the referee pulls you off your opponent or they are dead. From what I see Tyronec can capture Baku if he starts right away. Just make sure to get Stalingrad under wraps first. Tyronec is an excellent player and I think he will do just that.





I see another one of my predictions is coming true :-)



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: T48 (6/17/2020 10:40:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain


quote:

ORIGINAL: tyronec

We are playing standard scenario, so I need 290 VP and have 248 for Sudden Death.

No visible defences down South, there are several units around Kerch but don't see any elsewhere. Guess if I cut the rail line East of Stalingrad it will be slow for the Soviets to switch units in and out to the Caucasus.


Yes, Stalingrad is the key to the Caucasus. With Stalingrad in hand you have the gambit of capturing all of the Caucasus. If successful could pay off in spades. If not, well I rather not go there. Will be watching on what you choose to do. Good luck to you.


And now this is going to,"Pay off in spades" for the German player as I said before and others are seeing now. Again well done Tyronec.



joelmar -> RE: T48 (6/18/2020 1:13:46 AM)

quote:


@HLYA
And now this is going to,"Pay off in spades" for the German player as I said before and others are seeing now. Again well done Tyronec.


Oh, I did see that big time and agreed all along. The question was more about the possibility of success of the operation if you remember well. That was a few turns back and then I couldn't know BrianG would be holding on to a frontal position to the death while his flank and supply lines were wide open to a pz army. What I really expected was a big thining of his positions in the Sukhumi mountains, if not complete evacuation, to the gain of the Makha position, because that's what I would have done in his place... but it never came for unknown reasons. What can I do? [;)]

But the fact remains that even with a Caucasus Soviet strategy that is almost a dream come true for a German commander, things were not so easy and it will still take a few turns to get over with. So to me that means that with a better Terek-Makha defense including a few lines of prepared fortifications and a few well placed mountain divisions to protect the mountain passes, it would no doubt be better to send the pz somewhere else. Anyway, that's how I see it.



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: T48 (6/18/2020 2:14:00 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: joelmar

quote:


@HLYA
And now this is going to,"Pay off in spades" for the German player as I said before and others are seeing now. Again well done Tyronec.


Oh, I did see that big time and agreed all along. The question was more about the possibility of success of the operation if you remember well. That was a few turns back and then I couldn't know BrianG would be holding on to a frontal position to the death while his flank and supply lines were wide open to a pz army. What I really expected was a big thining of his positions in the Sukhumi mountains, if not complete evacuation, to the gain of the Makha position, because that's what I would have done in his place... but it never came for unknown reasons. What can I do? [;)]

But the fact remains that even with a Caucasus Soviet strategy that is almost a dream come true for a German commander, things were not so easy and it will still take a few turns to get over with. So to me that means that with a better Terek-Makha defense including a few lines of prepared fortifications and a few well placed mountain divisions to protect the mountain passes, it would no doubt be better to send the pz somewhere else. Anyway, that's how I see it.


My own experience on the run to Baku has been overly positive. It isn't for everyone but I knew Tyronec has the mettle for just such an operation. Out of all the times I went for Baku I didn't accomplish Baku only one time to capture it.



Telemecus -> RE: T61 (6/18/2020 3:27:41 AM)

I thought it would be worth linking to Brian's vent here https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4835778 for anyone reading this AAR in the future as they would go together in time.

Brian has very fairly said he is just venting. But there are serious issues about play-ability of the long game. This is among the first AARs to be fought into 1942 under the new 1.12 patch. And doubtless the issues are even less play tested in the later game and it will be a long while before they can be.



chaos45 -> RE: T61 (6/18/2020 7:57:40 AM)

I read Brians vents.....I think the issue comes from losing Moscow and how much of the rest of the soviet union he has lost. It seems his issues are all tied to his ability to re-supply due to massive rail loss.

Its why I mentioned historically the soviets would probably have just surrendered or economically collapsed if it had lost the territory it has this game.

Its why in general short of bad German play once the soviets lose historical in the south + Leningrad + Moscow in 1941 they should just give up....as the losses are to high long term for the soviets to really stay in the game vs good German play. The compounding losses from all that is massive....esp once you also realize you wont be able to hold the south in 1942 so will result in even more manpower and economic losses.

The way the game plays at current if you lose more than historical in 1941 the game is over as the soviets...Its to big a long term snowball loss effect for the long term game.

The only thing that might fix it is if more manpower, and the rail points re-locate when locations are captured.

It also seems maybe the new rail system needs some tweaking, but im not sure how much as losing Moscow and most of European Russia should cost the soviet economy a lot--thus be a negative for the Soviet player long term.



tyronec -> T62 (6/18/2020 4:31:00 PM)

Center. Pocket eliminated and get across the Oka, thanks to an HQB last turn. My flanks are a bit thin but expect I can survive some damage. Will see what the Soviets do but am thinking to clear the bulge between here and Moscow.

Caucasus. Soviets had put a Guard Corps on the last rough hex, but thanks to air supply to the lead Panzer and some Mot. divisions last turn was able to get past and take Baku.
Mass exodus for the main front, will just leave the minimum to do the mopping up.

[image]local://upfiles/52296/ACD13292FF5C42D185A89F929ABC668D.jpg[/image]



Telemecus -> RE: T62 (6/18/2020 5:01:22 PM)

Very well played by Tyronec and nothing should take away from that.

But quite simply the Soviets should not have allowed Baku to fall this turn - they could have easily prevented that.

Is there a battle report for the taking of Baku you could show us?



redrum68 -> RE: T62 (6/18/2020 5:35:42 PM)

Oh wow. Congrats on capturing Baku!



joelmar -> RE: T62 (6/18/2020 6:15:37 PM)

Yes, nicely done, great achievement, congrats!



tyronec -> RE: T62 (6/18/2020 6:57:53 PM)

quote:

Is there a battle report for the taking of Baku you could show us?

Baku fell without a battle. I did a lot of bombing and GS, guess the Isolated Panzer division with 40 MPs was a surprise. There was no way the Soviets could stop me either taking Baku or blocking the two hexes in front of it this turn. If he had split up the Guard Corps then would have been able to take the rough hex - I had the Panzer and two Mot. divisions with over 30 MPs past Derbent.
Brian has guarded every other city behind the front line, he has got it wrong down here.



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: T62 (6/18/2020 9:02:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tyronec

quote:

Is there a battle report for the taking of Baku you could show us?

Baku fell without a battle. I did a lot of bombing and GS, guess the Isolated Panzer division with 40 MPs was a surprise. There was no way the Soviets could stop me either taking Baku or blocking the two hexes in front of it this turn. If he had split up the Guard Corps then would have been able to take the rough hex - I had the Panzer and two Mot. divisions with over 30 MPs past Derbent.
Brian has guarded every other city behind the front line, he has got it wrong down here.


I would surmise that BrianG is demoralized according to the venting in the other thread thus the easy take. Excellent job of course Tyronec, I knew you could do it from the beginning.



chaos45 -> RE: T62 (6/18/2020 10:54:44 PM)

I think being demoralized if your in the Soviet seat is pretty reasonable at this point lol.



tyronec -> T63 (6/20/2020 9:28:30 AM)

A few Soviet attacks against AGN and north of Saratov, just counterattack to stabalise the line.
Just leaving the minimum to clear the Caucasus.

Main push continues in the center. Have cut the Gorky-Moscow rail line which means there is a long loop for the Soviets to switch troops between their left and right flanks.
Plan is to continue pushing North and West and clear the bulge East of Moscow.

I need Yaroslav, Ivanovo and Kubyshev, plus a few cities, for the win. After reflection am sending Army Group B to resume the offensive East of Saratov as they come up from the Caucasus. Gives me a flank threat on Kubyshev and a possible advance towards Chkalov. If I don't do anything south of the Axis Alley limit then my Allies will be out of the game. Don't think a win is on in the next 7 moves, winter my supplies are poor, so looking towards Summer 43. With that in mind clearing a good bit of the Chkalov rail line is an objective.



[image]local://upfiles/52296/8093F2931D3E42DE9F95301C1DBE11A0.jpg[/image]



joelmar -> RE: T63 (6/20/2020 1:27:02 PM)

I still think you can win this in 1942. Even more now.



tyronec -> RE: T63 (6/20/2020 2:35:12 PM)

quote:

I still think you can win this in 1942. Even more now.

Will give it a go, probably have a better idea in 3 or 4 turns.



joelmar -> RE: T63 (6/20/2020 2:53:22 PM)

It will be interesting to see no question about that.



chaos45 -> RE: T63 (6/20/2020 7:33:34 PM)

Brian is staying to long in bad spots...did in the south and he is doing it again in the north....he is constantly 1-2 turns behind Tyronec on the operational side of the game and is getting punished mercilessly for it.

As the Soviets you have to know when to run......



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: T63 (6/20/2020 7:45:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Brian is staying to long in bad spots...did in the south and he is doing it again in the north....he is constantly 1-2 turns behind Tyronec on the operational side of the game and is getting punished mercilessly for it.

As the Soviets you have to know when to run......


BrianG LOVES Mother Russia!!!!




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