RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/26/2018 5:22:51 PM)

That is a fantastic result at Chengchow, a terrific victory there. The supply malus for the Japanese bodes ill for them in that theater.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/26/2018 6:14:33 PM)

4/9/45

Strategic Bombing: Sweeps went in before the bombers (not a common occurrence) and cleared out a nest of Georges and Sams. Weather shot down the B-29s from Formosa and some of the bombers from China, but enough sortied from China and Korea to hit Shimonoseki pretty hard. This raid was daylight at 10,000 feet. At that altitude, accuracy and results were dampened a bit but I didn't lose any Superforts. That's significant. This base will require one more good whack.

Tomorrow's raid will daylight at 8k against Hiroshima, which had no fighter cover today. I'm hoping to finish off that as a target.

Japan lost a lot of fighters today. At one point, the ratio of the major sweeps was 42:7 in favor of the Allies. So John's fighter corps is having real trouble now.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/15F4393B47DF49C489ACBD0C1B96EFF3.jpg[/image]



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/26/2018 7:55:30 PM)

Those George’s are new , no? That and Franks. You are knocking down better planes than you are flying. I’m thinking that Johns pilot pools are gassed



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/26/2018 8:08:58 PM)

Those models have been around a long time - look at the number of each that have been destroyed.

There's no doubt now that he's using green pilots of late. I know he has a corps of excellent pilots that he's using selectively. Eventually, he'll guess the right place and time, and I'll mis-guess, and he'll tear into a raid. But the past week has been a Happy Interval over Japan for Allied pilots.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/26/2018 10:28:04 PM)

4/10/45

Korea: Keijo is on the brink of falling.

China: Chinese army rails forward to Chengchow. I think the Kaifeng Pocket is about to get ugly for Japan.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/8EF4DC86AC964A918B0AC2400038B90B.jpg[/image]



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/26/2018 10:56:28 PM)

Very impressive.

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.

John finally hit the bottom of the barrel when it comes to his pilots, it seems. The fact that he's got plenty of pilots on carriers well away from the main action is very telling.

Maybe he's got another "India - 1945" operation under his belt?



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/27/2018 1:34:54 AM)

If your speartip is going straight to Peiping you could have an awful river crossing shock attack into X4 HU terrain plus forts. You might want to take the delay and ford the river between Peiping and Tientsin.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/27/2018 2:12:31 AM)

Yeah, that's the plan.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/27/2018 2:15:17 AM)

4/11/45

Battle of Keijo: On the third day, a third consecutive deliberate attack comes off at 1:1 (disappointing), drops forts to 0, and inflicts considerably more damage against the Japanese. My guys need a rest, but the enemy garrison is gassed. AV of all but one division dropped to zero. I have a fresh division (100% prepped) one day out, so I'll renew the attack day after tomorrow. I have left one armored unit set to deliberate attack.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/BCDBEAB081564EEBB676A6CCD4C83230.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/27/2018 2:27:21 AM)

4/11/45

Raid on Hiroshima: Strong raid against Hiroshima faces very light opposition. 4EB losses are negligible. These daylight raids at 8k to 10k against light CAP have been efficient and successful.

Fighter sweeps against John's strongest bases (Nagasaki and Fukuoka), just to keep him on his toes, result in roughly 1:1 exchange, with each side losing about 25 good fighters.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/DA10F0D89E234221BB555AA5B94AF4EE.jpg[/image]



Capt. Harlock -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/27/2018 4:18:39 AM)

quote:

Japan lost a lot of fighters today. At one point, the ratio of the major sweeps was 42:7 in favor of the Allies. So John's fighter corps is having real trouble now.


As enthused as I am about Allied victories, I think April 9th was an anomaly having much to do with the fall of Chengchow before John evacuated his aircraft. [:-]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/27/2018 7:59:22 AM)

That was the ratio in aerial combat between fighters on sweep versus CAP.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/27/2018 10:29:01 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Very impressive.

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.

John finally hit the bottom of the barrel when it comes to his pilots, it seems. The fact that he's got plenty of pilots on carriers well away from the main action is very telling.

Maybe he's got another "India - 1945" operation under his belt?


quote:

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.


Not so sure. The Marines occupied populated parts of China right after the war (and took causalities) and the situation was deteriorating. There was going to be a winner take all civil war once the Japanese were dispatched no matter what. I suspect we did what we could, realized it was not enough, and retreated in good order. If you have not read "With the Old Breed" you are missing one of the great memoirs of the war. Much later on he wrote a follow up, China Marine, about his short stay as part of the occupation force in China. It's a glimpse into a dying culture that Communism would eradicate from the earth



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/27/2018 12:26:14 PM)

As to Singapore. If I recall you got a black eye or two there because of strong fighter protection. If he is adding troops, he is adding planes, and these might be good pilots. If you are going to make a push you might consider taking the Death Star and flattening the airfields and bleeding off any fighters. This will not be to difficult as John does not have a network of interlocking airfields. He can get stuff in, but there is no credible threat to your fleet and once the airfilds are trashed it will be easy to keep them that way



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/27/2018 4:37:56 PM)

Singers has been under reconnaissance for a long time. John has a lot of fighters (about 140 or so) and bombers there. I haven't tested them yet because I suspect they are among his better squadrons. Right now, I don't have enough good squadrons in Malaya to work that angle. When the time comes, probably once Korea is decided, I'll be able to shift resources there - if there's still a war going on.

John clearly puts a lot of stock in Singers. He places more stock in it than I do, so I'll be cautious. I think that's part of the reason KB South is lurking down here. I'd take it if it was relatively easy, but I won't embroil myself in a costly charnel house when there are better ways to employ my assets in China and Korea.

But there may be ways to lure him into traps, etc. I don't have a specific plan yet, but I'm mulling over various notions.

The bigger picture is this: the Allied lead has increased to 140k to 76k. I'm 12k from victory. Points are comming much easier than they were just a week or two back. The Japanese are having trouble getting their fists up to defend themselves in the Home Islands. Korea is going to turn turtle on them when Keijo falls in two or three days. And the disaster that is China just went from major to immense - the Chinese army at Chengchow has 5000 AV - this is above and beyond what was already present and probably sufficient to handle the Japanese in the Pocket. Some of that 5,000 will help will reinforcing and reducing the pocket, but most of it will advance on Peiping.

In other words, the game is going to end by medium-term. I'm 100% it will end no later than the end of May. There's a chance it could end in early May. There's a remote chance it could end by the end of April.




MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/28/2018 12:21:37 PM)

quote:

In other words, the game is going to end by medium-term. I'm 100% it will end no later than the end of May. There's a chance it could end in early May. There's a remote chance it could end by the end of April.



Vegas bookies are giving a wider time spread.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/28/2018 8:25:57 PM)

4/12/45

Malaya: Allied army drawing closer to Singers, taking Malacca today.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E3BF4897A8F347949E4AA29AA4F3243E.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/28/2018 8:57:44 PM)

4/12/45

China: The collapse of organized enemy resistance is underway, I think. The Kaifeng Pocket is a lost cause for John, though he probably has no way of knowing that yet. He is cobbling together a line at Peiping and Tientsin, which makes sense. The Allies will focus first on the Pocket, which probably won't take long, before releashing 4,000 or 5,000 AV to take on Peiping.

Korea: Key attack at Keijo tomorrow, and a snap invaison of Antung tomorrow or the day after.

Strategic Bombing: A good day with no opposition over Sendai and Sapporo.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/0D60F83FC9FD4024A8F09F04ECBBCFE2.jpg[/image]



nicwb -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/29/2018 4:20:27 AM)

quote:

In other words, the game is going to end by medium-term. I'm 100% it will end no later than the end of May. There's a chance it could end in early May. There's a remote chance it could end by the end of April.



Vegas bookies are giving a wider time spread.


Isn't the real question whether Canoerebel's AAR will hit 500 pages before the war ends ?



waihi -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/29/2018 4:35:47 AM)

Or get 1m hits!



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/29/2018 12:52:59 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: nicwb

quote:

In other words, the game is going to end by medium-term. I'm 100% it will end no later than the end of May. There's a chance it could end in early May. There's a remote chance it could end by the end of April.



Vegas bookies are giving a wider time spread.


Isn't the real question whether Canoerebel's AAR will hit 500 pages before the war ends ?



In the seedy part of the forum bets are being taken on the end of the war date.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/29/2018 5:41:22 PM)

4/13/45

Asia: Keijo falls, the Japanese collapse in China continues, and Allied 4EB hit Kobe hard and face no opposition.

These are dark days for Japan. John sent this humorous and historically applicable email: "Let April 13, 1945 be the benchmark for when Imperial Japan began serious surrender discussions at the highest levels of its government. It doesn’t leak to the people but it does to American Intelligence.

"Damn. The combat firepower you have is AMAZING."

It's just a cascade of disasters for him everywhere, at the moment. He still has the ability to strike and hard, if he picks the right time and location, but mostly he's staggering around punch drunk. And kudos to him for keeping up the fight when it's just about hopeless.

I don't think this is analogous to the Allied command in October 1944, thinking resistance had broken and that the end was nigh even as the Germans were stiffening, counterattacking, and drawing lots of blood. I think this is more like Germany in March 1945. There's still hard fighting to do; there's still traps to avoid; and it takes time for a government to reach the point of willing capitulation. That point (2:1) is now just 10k points away. The Allied lead is 142k to 76k.

Here, near the end, KB is dispersed and the Divine Wind has never shown itself. I think John would prefer to go down fighting rather than having peace break out while KB is still intact. But I don't know. 2:1 isn't far off.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/BA3D932CE0DB4C8D96B1F7689BB0C619.jpg[/image]



RangerJoe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/29/2018 10:50:47 PM)

WOW! [sm=character0272.gif] The continued explosion in China and Korea is astounding. The China advance is is spearheaded by [sm=Tank-fahr09.gif] while in Korea the 1st Cav [sm=tank2-39.gif] helped [sm=fighting0043.gif] take care of the IJA.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/30/2018 5:16:17 PM)

4/14/45

Korea: Engineers bump Keijo airfield from 2 to 3 in one day. The Allied army at Keijo is fanning out and attacking.

China: The collapse continues.

Strategic Bombing: A productive raid vs. Kobe with no 4EB lost.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/06A757DE6DF447CCABB17E907A387BC4.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/30/2018 5:33:24 PM)

4/14/45

Intelligence Screen: Since the last post on 4/1/45, the Allies have done particular well in Strategic Bombing and Army Loss points.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/99A3AF6DB0BF4A4D92A54BDDDE3CACF9.jpg[/image]



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/31/2018 12:08:33 AM)

Closer to 6:1 than 8:1, but I quibble.



obvert -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/31/2018 7:39:39 AM)

The work done in China and Korea destroying the Expeditionary Army is almost as important as the strategic bombing. Almost. [;)]

Looks like a few more corals full of beasts to tame and send to pasture there too.

I just posted in John's AAR about this after he posted your "Vampire/Empire" note:

Enjoy these last days of the game and go out in a blaze of glory John!! Glad this one is seeing a fitting end, well into 45 and still contested. I made a bet with Chickenboy ages ago, when the Sumatra stuff was happening I think, that this game would see 45.

When you both took a pause for a time, and Dan did some hiking, I paid of the debt. A while back Andre got in touch asking if I wanted my money back and some to pay his end of the now 'lost' wager as you both charged into 45. I declined. It's just my small tithe to this epic match, and glad I could pay the gods of the game for their persistence in getting you guys back in action! [:D]







Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/31/2018 2:04:01 PM)

One of the two great pleasures of playing this deeply into 1945 has been getting to use the full arsenal of Allied weaponry, not because I have new and snazzy stuff, but because I finally achieved the position from which to implement that which has come "online" over the past year or so. The second pleasure was seeing through to fruition a plan in place since mid-1943 that, in turn, was built on the foundation of the Sumatra Campaign.

There aren't many players willing to go this deep and long into the game. It must be awfully tempting to bail out when the war truly becomes hopeless. John didn't do so, partly becuase he preserved KB so long, partly because he didn't want to give in, and partly (I suspect) through the encouragement and counseling of his readers. I owe John a great deal for sticking it out. And I owe the Victory Point system of the designer in making sticking it out worthwhile, challenging and fun.

Obvert, I well remember your prediction and Chickenboy's and the words of others, like crsutton (as best I can tell, Ross is nearly always right in anything he says, but he keeps a pretty low profile). So many, many good people read my AAR or John's or both. It goes well beyond the game. For instance, Ross highly recommended reading The Good Shepherd, which I tracked down, ordered, and read, much to my delight. John Dillworth recommended With the Old Breed, which I tracked down and read twice now. And somebody came along six or eight mnths ago and provided a YouTube link the The Band singing "The Night They Drove Ol' Dixie Down," something I've watched/listened to scores of times since then. You guys read stuff that I write and provide helpful feedback or encouragement or admonishment. Lokasenna taught me the term Purple Prose. John Dillworth, a resident of Long Island, which is 18 light years distant from the place I live, is a gentleman who, in temperament, seems like a lifelong friend.

And sometimes I get ill or crosswise with the good people of the Forum. I've managed to give offense to some good people who no longer hang around - one of whom was so irritated he declined my request for help. Even though we got crosswise or I made them cross, I knew that all are good guys. Sometimes, guys get crosswise, like Eisenhower and Monty or Patton and Bradley. The Forum is made up of bright people who know what they are doing and don't take well to ignorance or obstinancy or petulance. But the Forum at the moment is a really special place.

I'm gonna drive a stake through the heart of the Vampire. Then I'm going to miss this game and miss creating something that brings in (and occasionaly drives away) people of such quality.





crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/31/2018 2:47:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Very impressive.

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.

John finally hit the bottom of the barrel when it comes to his pilots, it seems. The fact that he's got plenty of pilots on carriers well away from the main action is very telling.

Maybe he's got another "India - 1945" operation under his belt?


quote:

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.


Not so sure. The Marines occupied populated parts of China right after the war (and took causalities) and the situation was deteriorating. There was going to be a winner take all civil war once the Japanese were dispatched no matter what. I suspect we did what we could, realized it was not enough, and retreated in good order. If you have not read "With the Old Breed" you are missing one of the great memoirs of the war. Much later on he wrote a follow up, China Marine, about his short stay as part of the occupation force in China. It's a glimpse into a dying culture that Communism would eradicate from the earth


I think you are right about that. Even though Chiang was a fierce nationalist and hated colonialism, he was tainted with the alliances he made with the West during the war and could not escape it in the minds of the Chinese population. The Civil War was first and foremost a nationalistic movement and the Communists kept enough distance from the Allies before and during the war to give them legitimacy. It was not just about communism but the national desire of the Chinese to be rid of outside influences. No amount of Western forces in China would have changed the outcome. This is my over-simplification of complex events but I think it is the just of the argument.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/31/2018 4:04:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Very impressive.

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.

John finally hit the bottom of the barrel when it comes to his pilots, it seems. The fact that he's got plenty of pilots on carriers well away from the main action is very telling.

Maybe he's got another "India - 1945" operation under his belt?


quote:

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.


Not so sure. The Marines occupied populated parts of China right after the war (and took causalities) and the situation was deteriorating. There was going to be a winner take all civil war once the Japanese were dispatched no matter what. I suspect we did what we could, realized it was not enough, and retreated in good order. If you have not read "With the Old Breed" you are missing one of the great memoirs of the war. Much later on he wrote a follow up, China Marine, about his short stay as part of the occupation force in China. It's a glimpse into a dying culture that Communism would eradicate from the earth


I think you are right about that. Even though Chiang was a fierce nationalist and hated colonialism, he was tainted with the alliances he made with the West during the war and could not escape it in the minds of the Chinese population. The Civil War was first and foremost a nationalistic movement and the Communists kept enough distance from the Allies before and during the war to give them legitimacy. It was not just about communism but the national desire of the Chinese to be rid of outside influences. No amount of Western forces in China would have changed the outcome. This is my over-simplification of complex events but I think it is the just of the argument.

Interesting - exactly the thoughts about self-determination I have seen in several countries including Cuba. It ought to be our first assumption about why people are fighting us, before we slap labels like communist or terrorist on them. It might change our approach to a more effective/less costly one.



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